Fulham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester United were slight favourites.
Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 66). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Manchester United. Fulham had 8.1 days of rest, Manchester United 7 and had to travel 262 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel262 kmRest days8.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Fulham32%
Draw23%
Manchester United45%
Fulham33%
Draw26%
Manchester United41%
Fulham33%
Draw23%
Manchester United45%
Fulham25%
Draw21%
Manchester United53%
Fulham32%
Draw23%
Manchester United45%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
20°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 36%
RefereePeter Bankes
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 124
Team strength
Fulham
Manchester United
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
66
AttackIn forecast
72
68
DefenceIn forecast
80
25
Form indexContext
53
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FulhamManchester United
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
2.02
1.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.53
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
50%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.00
ShotsContext
21.00
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
27%
On target shareContext
26%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.50
70%
Box shareContext
52%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.67
13.50
Shots allowedContext
10.25
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
4.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
61%
Save rateContext
59%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
569
PassesContext
557
483
Accurate passesContext
490
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.25
FoulsContext
11.00
8.75
Fouls sufferedContext
9.75
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
2.07
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
50%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.20
ShotsContext
18.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
25%
On target shareContext
32%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
11.60
64%
Box shareContext
61%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.30
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.00
BlocksContext
3.80
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
69%
Save rateContext
72%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
501
PassesContext
500
424
Accurate passesContext
431
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.10
11.30
FoulsContext
10.50
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fulham
LLLD
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 1 pts vs 4.1 for an average club · -4.3 vs expected
Manchester United
LWDWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel262 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 53 · 7 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fulham |
Manchester United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 573 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 19.9 | 20 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fulham
Confirmed XI
1B. Leno(G)
33A. Robinson
3C. Bassey
22D. Affengruber
21T. Castagne
19S. Charles
16S. Berge
17A. Iwobi
24J. King
14O. Bobb
7Gonzalo García
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
1S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
6L. Martínez
5J. Maguire
2Diogo Dalot
18Y. Tielemans
37K. Mainoo
9M. Rashford
8Bruno Fernandes
19B. Mbeumo
10Matheus Cunha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fulham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester United
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fulham-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Manchester United+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Fulham · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Manchester United · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Fulham wins2 draws7 Manchester United wins
Goals per game0.90 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets0% · 30%
- 1 Feb 2026Manchester United3–2Fulham
- 24 Aug 2025Fulham1–1Manchester United
- 26 Jan 2025Fulham0–1Manchester United
- 16 Aug 2024Manchester United1–0Fulham
- 24 Feb 2024Manchester United1–2Fulham
- 4 Nov 2023Fulham0–1Manchester United
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fulham | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.50 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Fulham | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fulham | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.75 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.75 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 4.25 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Fulham | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.44 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.60 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Peter Bankes 124 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 3.78
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+44%league 41%
Fouls21.5league 23.0
Penalties0.15league 0.18
Home wins51%league 37%
Fulham11 with this referee
Record6-1-4
Cards · opp.2.9 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W7 Jan 26H · Chelsea2–13
- L25 Oct 25A · Newcastle1–22
- W25 Feb 25A · Wolves2–13
- W5 Dec 24H · Brighton3–12
- L5 Oct 24A · Manchester City2–31
Manchester United10 with this referee
Record3-1-6
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L4 Mar 26A · Newcastle1–23
- W20 Sep 25H · Chelsea2–12
- D27 Apr 25A · Bournemouth1–12
- L16 Feb 25A · Tottenham0–12
- L19 Jan 25H · Brighton1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fulham4 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Manchester United4 games · scored 7 · conceded 7
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Fulham10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 22 · conceded 12
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
