Galatasaray vs Barcelona – 13 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Tue, Oct 13 · 20:00 Rams Park, Istanbul

Galatasaray 29th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–4Full time

Barcelona 4th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Barcelona were clear favourites.

Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 65). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Barcelona. Barcelona were without Raphinha. Galatasaray had 4.1 days of rest, Barcelona 3.1 and had to travel 2,233 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel2,233 kmRest days4.1 · 3.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Galatasaray16%

Draw17%

Barcelona68%

Expected goals 1.21 – 2.62

Galatasaray19%

Draw23%

Barcelona58%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.84

Galatasaray15%

Draw17%

Barcelona68%

Expected goals 1.20 – 2.63

Galatasaray11%

Draw14%

Barcelona75%

Expected goals 1.08 – 2.93

Galatasaray16%

Draw18%

Barcelona65%

Expected goals 1.12 – 2.36

Over 2.5 73% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–2

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Istanbul)

17°CLight rain

Precipitation 0.8 mm
Wind 15 km/h
Humidity 92%

Referee · ItalyMarco Guida

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 93

Team strength

Galatasaray

Barcelona

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 93

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 93

57 AttackIn forecast 97

55 DefenceIn forecast 92

63 Form indexContext 95

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Galatasaray

Attack−51%

Defense risk+154%

Barcelona

Attack+2%

Defense risk+12%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Galatasaray

Barcelona

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.00

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

2.18 xGVia Att/Def 3.55

0.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.45

80% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

20.40 ShotsContext 20.80

7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.90

34% On target shareContext 38%

13.90 Shots in the boxContext 14.50

69% Box shareContext 72%

10% ConversionContext 19%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.90

8.70 Shots allowedContext 7.80

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44

3.25 BlocksContext 2.00

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

64% Save rateContext 64%

62% PossessionIn forecast 71%

504 PassesContext 700

441 Accurate passesContext 637

88% Pass accuracyContext 91%

6.93 Team ratingContext 7.37

10.80 FoulsContext 9.40

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Galatasaray WLWLW

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 63 · 9 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected

W9 OctH · Kasimpasa3–12.3 xPts
L19 SepA · Trabzonspor0–41.9 xPts
W13 SepH · Kocaelispor1–02.4 xPts
L9 SepA · Sporting CP1–31.0 xPts
W4 SepA · Istanbul Basaksehir3–21.8 xPts

Barcelona WWWWW

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel2,233 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load28%Moderate

Form 95 · 15 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +2.3 vs expected

W10 OctH · Getafe3–02.7 xPts
W19 SepA · Sevilla3–12.3 xPts
W16 SepH · Racing Santander7–22.7 xPts
W13 SepA · Levante4–22.3 xPts
W9 SepH · Feyenoord5–12.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Galatasaray	Barcelona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 28
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 9 Oct	3.1La Liga 2026-2027, 10 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,233 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Galatasaray Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1U. Çakır(G)

17E. Elmalı 4I. Jakobs 6D. Sánchez 53B. Yılmaz

99M. Lemina 34L. Torreira

27Rafael Leão 83A. Batrakov 11Y. Akgün

45V. Osimhen

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Barcelona Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Joan García(G)

2João Cancelo 18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 24Eric García

8Pedri 16Rodri 7Fermín López

17A. Gordon 20Dani Olmo 10Lamine Yamal

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Galatasaray Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −5.6% of weighted minutes

DEF W. Singo Rotation 6.78 Def −2.8%
DEF K. Karataş Rotation 6.56 Def −1.2%
DEF G. Güvenç Rotation 6.50 Def −1.0%
DEF K. Ayhan Depth 6.59 Def −0.4%
DEF A. Ünyay Depth 6.44 Def −0.3%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): Can Armando Güner, E. Aydin, A. Yilmaz

Barcelona Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −19.9% · Defence line −3.1% of weighted minutes

ATT Raphinha Core 7.86 Att −17.4%
MID F. de Jong Rotation 7.08 Att −1.8% Def −1.4%
DEF A. Christensen Rotation 6.64 Def −1.1%
MID R. Bardghji Rotation 6.55 Att −0.7% Def −0.5%

Total impact vs full squads

Galatasaray+0.3 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Barcelona-0.5 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Galatasaray · Home No home games yet this season.

Barcelona · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Galatasaray	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	5.00
Conceded per game	3.00	1.00
Match goals	4.00	6.00	3.82
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	73%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	65%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Galatasaray	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	4.00
Conceded per game	1.70	1.10
Match goals	3.80	5.10	3.82
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	90%	73%
Over 3.5	80%	80%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	65%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Galatasaray	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.00
Corners conceded	1.00	1.00
Match total	5.00	5.00	9.10
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	5.00	2.00	3.75
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Galatasaray	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	6.70	6.11
Corners conceded	2.00	3.22
Match total	8.70	9.33	9.10
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.30
Opponent cards	2.00	1.60
Match total	4.20	2.90	3.75
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 93 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.89league 3.60

Red cards0.14league 0.15

Cards 5+38%league 35%

Fouls23.7league 23.2

Penalties0.33league 0.15

Home wins42%league 60%

Galatasaray2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L18 Sep 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–50
W15 Aug 23H · Olimpija Ljubljana1–02

Barcelona2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 0

D10 Mar 26A · Newcastle1–11
L13 Dec 23A · Antwerp2–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.