Galatasaray
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Galatasaray77.2%fair odds 1.30
Draw15.0%fair odds 6.68
Konyaspor7.8%fair odds 12.74
Expected goals2.62 – 0.74total 3.37
Likeliest score2–011.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Konyaspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Galatasaray ↓ · Konyaspor → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Galatasaray goals, columns Konyaspor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.9%8.41
- 3–010.4%9.62
- 2–18.8%11.33
- 1–08.7%11.48
- 3–17.7%12.96
- 1–17.1%14.12
- 4–06.8%14.67
- 4–15.1%19.77
- 0–03.8%26.23
- 5–03.6%27.96
Winning margin
34.5%
Galatasaray by 3+
fair 2.90
21.7%
Galatasaray by 2
fair 4.60
20.9%
Galatasaray by 1
fair 4.78
15.0%
Draw
fair 6.68
5.7%
Konyaspor by 1
fair 17.67
1.7%
Konyaspor by 2
fair 57.47
0.4%
Konyaspor by 3+
fair 223.00
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Galatasaray goals
7%0
19%1
25%2
22%3
27%4+
Konyaspor goals
48%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 77.2% | 75.4% | +1.8 pp |
| Draw | 15.0% | 16.2% | -1.2 pp |
| Konyaspor win | 7.8% | 8.4% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.3% | 61.5% | +3.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.9% | 47.0% | +1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Galatasaray | 2.62 | 2.46 | +0.16 |
| Expected goals Konyaspor | 0.74 | 0.71 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Galatasaray win77.2%1.30
- Draw15.0%6.68
- Konyaspor win7.8%12.74
- Double chance Galatasaray or draw92.2%1.09
- Double chance Galatasaray or Konyaspor85.0%1.18
- Double chance Konyaspor or draw22.8%4.38
- Draw no bet Galatasaray90.8%1.10
- Draw no bet Konyaspor9.2%10.84
Goals
- Over 0.596.2%1.04
- Over 1.585.3%1.17
- Over 2.565.3%1.53
- Over 3.543.4%2.30
- Over 4.524.9%4.01
- Under 1.514.7%6.79
- Under 2.534.7%2.89
- Under 3.556.6%1.77
Both teams to score
- Yes48.9%2.04
- No51.1%1.96
- Yes and over 2.541.9%2.39
- Galatasaray win and yes33.4%3.00
- Draw and yes11.2%8.96
- Konyaspor win and yes4.4%22.72
Team goals
- Galatasaray over 0.592.7%1.08
- Galatasaray over 1.573.7%1.36
- Galatasaray over 2.548.7%2.05
- Konyaspor over 0.552.4%1.91
- Konyaspor over 1.517.1%5.86
- Konyaspor over 2.53.9%25.35
- Galatasaray clean sheet47.6%2.10
- Konyaspor clean sheet7.3%13.78
- Galatasaray win to nil43.8%2.28
- Konyaspor win to nil3.4%29.02
Handicap
- Galatasaray −1.556.3%1.78
- Galatasaray −2.534.5%2.90
- Konyaspor +1.543.7%2.29
- Konyaspor +2.565.5%1.53
- Konyaspor −1.52.2%45.69
- Galatasaray +1.597.8%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored50
Favourite won40.0%
Avg chance given to result40.0%
1X2 Brier0.598
Over 2.5 called right54.0%
BTTS called right48.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.2% | 14.3% |
| 40–50% | 22 | 44.7% | 18.2% |
| 50–60% | 11 | 54.8% | 54.5% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 65.8% | 87.5% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 78.2% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 26 of 50 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6374 | 0.6057 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.5% | 39.9% |
| Favourite won | 38.5% | 46.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 26 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 50 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.