Gazişehir Gaziantep
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Gazişehir Gaziantep15.0%fair odds 6.69
Draw21.3%fair odds 4.70
Galatasaray63.8%fair odds 1.57
Expected goals0.90 – 2.06total 2.96
Likeliest score0–211.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Galatasaray
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Gazişehir Gaziantep ↓ · Galatasaray → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Gazişehir Gaziantep goals, columns Galatasaray goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.0%9.09
- 0–110.2%9.85
- 1–110.1%9.90
- 1–29.9%10.11
- 0–37.6%13.22
- 1–36.8%14.70
- 0–05.7%17.61
- 2–24.4%22.48
- 2–14.3%23.19
- 1–04.1%24.15
Winning margin
1.2%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 3+
fair 82.04
3.7%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 2
fair 26.86
10.0%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 1
fair 9.99
21.3%
Draw
fair 4.70
23.6%
Galatasaray by 1
fair 4.23
19.6%
Galatasaray by 2
fair 5.10
20.6%
Galatasaray by 3+
fair 4.86
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Gazişehir Gaziantep goals
41%0
37%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
Galatasaray goals
13%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
15%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep win | 15.0% | 15.5% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 21.3% | 22.1% | -0.8 pp |
| Galatasaray win | 63.8% | 62.4% | +1.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 54.6% | +2.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.3% | 51.2% | +1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Gazişehir Gaziantep | 0.90 | 0.89 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Galatasaray | 2.06 | 1.98 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win15.0%6.69
- Draw21.3%4.70
- Galatasaray win63.8%1.57
- Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or draw36.2%2.76
- Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or Galatasaray78.7%1.27
- Double chance Galatasaray or draw85.0%1.18
- Draw no bet Gazişehir Gaziantep19.0%5.27
- Draw no bet Galatasaray81.0%1.23
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.0%1.25
- Over 2.556.8%1.76
- Over 3.534.4%2.90
- Over 4.517.8%5.60
- Under 1.520.0%5.01
- Under 2.543.2%2.32
- Under 3.565.6%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes52.3%1.91
- No47.7%2.10
- Yes and over 2.542.2%2.37
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win and yes7.9%12.61
- Draw and yes15.6%6.42
- Galatasaray win and yes28.8%3.47
Team goals
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 0.559.3%1.69
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 1.522.7%4.40
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 2.56.3%15.94
- Galatasaray over 0.587.3%1.15
- Galatasaray over 1.561.1%1.64
- Galatasaray over 2.534.0%2.94
- Gazişehir Gaziantep clean sheet12.7%7.87
- Galatasaray clean sheet40.7%2.46
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win to nil7.0%14.23
- Galatasaray win to nil35.0%2.86
Handicap
- Gazişehir Gaziantep −1.54.9%20.24
- Gazişehir Gaziantep −2.51.2%82.04
- Galatasaray +1.595.1%1.05
- Galatasaray +2.598.8%1.01
- Galatasaray −1.540.2%2.49
- Gazişehir Gaziantep +1.559.8%1.67
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.