Gazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gazişehir Gaziantep
7th · 23 pts · 15 played
DDWLD
0–1Full time
Goztepe
4th · 26 pts · 15 played
WWDWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 24). Absences weigh more on Gazişehir Gaziantep. Gazişehir Gaziantep had 5.8 days of rest, Goztepe 6.8 and had to travel 913 km.
Away travel913 kmRest days5.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Gazişehir Gaziantep37%
Draw27%
Goztepe35%
Gazişehir Gaziantep39%
Draw27%
Goztepe34%
Gazişehir Gaziantep40%
Draw27%
Goztepe33%
Gazişehir Gaziantep31%
Draw27%
Goztepe42%
Gazişehir Gaziantep37%
Draw27%
Goztepe36%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gaziantep)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 12
Team strength
Gazişehir GaziantepGoztepe
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
15
AttackIn forecast
39
18
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Gazişehir GaziantepGoztepe
1.53
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
73%
Scored inContext
73%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.40
ShotsContext
13.20
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
34%
On target shareContext
34%
7.87
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
56%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.60
Shots allowedContext
11.67
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.13
BlocksContext
3.36
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.87
67%
Save rateContext
84%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
404
PassesContext
245
338
Accurate passesContext
171
84%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.93
FoulsContext
17.07
16.33
Fouls sufferedContext
9.13
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.30
ShotsContext
12.30
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
38%
On target shareContext
33%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
54%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.89
14.80
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.70
BlocksContext
2.90
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
70%
Save rateContext
85%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
425
PassesContext
238
359
Accurate passesContext
163
85%
Pass accuracyContext
68%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.00
FoulsContext
16.60
16.10
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,700 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Goztepe
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel913 km710 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gazişehir Gaziantep |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Dec | 6.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 913 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,700 km | 710 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
20Z. Görgen(G)
77K. Rodrigues
4A. Kızıldağ
17S. Güler
2Luis Pérez
3D. Camara
61O. Özçiçek
10K. Kozłowski
21E. Boateng
9M. Bayo
18D. Sorescu
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
4T. Altıkardeş
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
2A. Kurtulan
10Junior Olaitan
9Juan
39Janderson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gazişehir Gaziantep-2.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Goztepe+2.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Home
1.38points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Goztepe · Away
1.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-2
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–4 H | D 0–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Konyaspor | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 22 of 42 · 1.57 per game | 23 of 42 · 1.64 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins1 draws0 Goztepe wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 7 Apr 2025Goztepe1–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 1 Nov 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep2–1Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.53 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 1.80 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 33% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 7% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 33% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 27% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.80 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 4.53 | |
| Match total | 10.07 | 9.13 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 8/14 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 5/14 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 5/14 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.13 | 2.47 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.53 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 6.66 | 4.74 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 87% 13/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 12/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.89 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.00 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.30 | 4.40 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.08league 4.46
Red cards0.17league 0.26
Cards 5+17%league 47%
Fouls27.3league 26.2
Penalties0.33league 0.27
Home wins25%league 35%
Gazişehir GaziantepNo previous matches with this referee.
Goztepe1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W5 Oct 25H · Istanbul Basaksehir1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gazişehir Gaziantep15 games · scored 23 · conceded 24
4
5
0-15
2
5
16-30
6
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
7
3
61-75
3
7
76-90
Goztepe15 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
6
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
