Genclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Genclerbirligi
13th · 19 pts · 19 played
WDWDL
2–1Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
8th · 25 pts · 19 played
DLLDD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Gazişehir Gaziantep were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 14). Absences weigh more on Gazişehir Gaziantep. Genclerbirligi had 7 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 7.1 and had to travel 506 km.
Away travel506 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Genclerbirligi40%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep32%
Genclerbirligi36%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep37%
Genclerbirligi37%
Draw28%
Gazişehir Gaziantep35%
Genclerbirligi33%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep39%
Genclerbirligi41%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep32%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ankara)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeErdem Mertoglu
- Cards per match 6.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
GenclerbirligiGazişehir Gaziantep
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
13
AttackIn forecast
15
16
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenclerbirligiGazişehir Gaziantep
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.37
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
74%
Scored inContext
74%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
10.37
ShotsContext
13.63
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.26
34%
On target shareContext
31%
6.21
Shots in the boxContext
8.05
58%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.18
OffsidesContext
1.77
14.95
Shots allowedContext
13.84
4.16
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.05
4.29
BlocksContext
3.42
2.68
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.37
65%
Save rateContext
67%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
306
PassesContext
383
240
Accurate passesContext
317
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.26
FoulsContext
13.05
13.37
Fouls sufferedContext
16.11
1.95
Yellow cardsContext
3.16
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.80
ShotsContext
11.80
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
33%
On target shareContext
33%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
59%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.50
15.10
Shots allowedContext
15.20
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
4.25
BlocksContext
4.00
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
63%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
316
PassesContext
352
248
Accurate passesContext
286
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.20
FoulsContext
12.90
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genclerbirligi
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km768 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel506 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genclerbirligi |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 506 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 768 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
2T. da Silva
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
13Pedro Pereira
15A. Dele-Bashiru
10M. Mimaroğlu
11G. Gürpüz
35O. Ülgün
22S. Koïta
29M. Niang
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
20Z. Görgen(G)
5N. Mujakić
23T. Sanuç
30N. Sangaré
77K. Rodrigues
3D. Camara
17K. Gassama
6M. Kabasakal
18D. Sorescu
44A. Maxim
9M. Bayo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genclerbirligi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genclerbirligi+3.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep-2.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Genclerbirligi · Home
1.56points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-3
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.44
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
1.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-2
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Genclerbirligi | Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | W 4–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 A | W 3–2 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 2–1 H | L 1–5 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Besiktas | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Rizespor | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–3 H | L 0–4 H |
| Points | 19 of 54 · 1.06 per game | 22 of 54 · 1.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Genclerbirligi wins0 draws1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 23 Aug 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep2–1Genclerbirligi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genclerbirligi | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.37 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 3.05 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 63% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 58% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 26% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Genclerbirligi | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genclerbirligi | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.06 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 10.34 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 12/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 8/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.21 | 3.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 3.37 | |
| Match total | 4.32 | 6.69 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 11/19 | 89% 17/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 10/19 | 84% 16/19 | |
| Genclerbirligi | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 10.78 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.90 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Erdem Mertoglu Türkiye · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.50league 4.39
Red cards0.00league 0.24
Cards 5+50%league 45%
Fouls22.5league 25.9
Penalties0.00league 0.25
Home wins50%league 36%
GenclerbirligiNo previous matches with this referee.
Gazişehir Gaziantep1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 Oct 25H · Antalyaspor3–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genclerbirligi19 games · scored 23 · conceded 27
3
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
8
31-45
4
6
46-60
4
5
61-75
5
4
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep19 games · scored 26 · conceded 32
4
5
0-15
3
7
16-30
7
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
8
5
61-75
3
10
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
