Genclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Genclerbirligi
16th · 8 pts · 11 played
DDWLL
2–1Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
10th · 13 pts · 11 played
LLDWW
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 11). Absences weigh more on Istanbul Basaksehir. Genclerbirligi had 6.1 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 7 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Genclerbirligi29%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir44%
Genclerbirligi29%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir45%
Genclerbirligi28%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir46%
Genclerbirligi23%
Draw25%
Istanbul Basaksehir52%
Genclerbirligi30%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir43%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ankara)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeDirenc Tonusluoglu
- Cards per match 6.0
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
GenclerbirligiIstanbul Basaksehir
11
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
13
AttackIn forecast
32
16
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenclerbirligiIstanbul Basaksehir
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.82
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
73%
Scored inContext
73%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
9.55
ShotsContext
11.55
2.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.73
31%
On target shareContext
32%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
54%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.91
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.50
BlocksContext
3.40
2.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
67%
Save rateContext
82%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
303
PassesContext
439
237
Accurate passesContext
374
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.82
FoulsContext
12.00
13.91
Fouls sufferedContext
13.73
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
2.27
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
70%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.90
ShotsContext
11.40
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
31%
On target shareContext
33%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.56
56%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.50
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.50
BlocksContext
3.56
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
69%
Save rateContext
83%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
303
PassesContext
437
236
Accurate passesContext
372
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.80
FoulsContext
12.00
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genclerbirligi
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,041 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel352 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genclerbirligi |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,041 km | 962 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 17 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
2T. da Silva
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
13Pedro Pereira
35O. Ülgün
15A. Dele-Bashiru
70F. Tongya
22S. Koïta
11G. Gürpüz
29M. Niang
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
42Ö. Şahiner
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
6O. Bulut
20U. Güneş
2B. Özdemir
10Nuno da Costa
14E. Shomurodov
7Y. Sarı
13Miguel Crespo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genclerbirligi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genclerbirligi+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir-1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Genclerbirligi · Home
0.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.60
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Genclerbirligi | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Goztepe | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Besiktas | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Rizespor | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 0–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 8 of 24 · 1.00 per game | 7 of 24 · 0.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Genclerbirligi | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 0.82 | |
| Match goals | 2.36 | 1.91 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 36% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 9% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 45% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 27% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Genclerbirligi | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 1.90 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genclerbirligi | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 5.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.64 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.19 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.55 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.64 | 5.36 | 4.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 7/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 55% 6/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Genclerbirligi | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 10.00 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.70 | 4.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Direnc Tonusluoglu Türkiye · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.00league 4.62
Red cards0.00league 0.28
Cards 5+100%league 53%
Fouls28.0league 26.1
Penalties1.00league 0.26
Home wins0%league 37%
GenclerbirligiNo previous matches with this referee.
Istanbul BasaksehirNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genclerbirligi11 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
6
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir11 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
