Genclerbirligi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genclerbirligi
16th · 8 pts · 11 played
DDWLL
2–1Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
10th · 13 pts · 11 played
LLDWW
Genclerbirligi29.5%fair odds 3.40
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.79
Istanbul Basaksehir44.2%fair odds 2.26
Expected goals1.22 – 1.54total 2.76
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Istanbul Basaksehir
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genclerbirligi ↓ · Istanbul Basaksehir → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 12.5 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genclerbirligi goals, columns Istanbul Basaksehir goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%8.00
- 1–29.2%10.91
- 0–19.1%10.97
- 0–27.5%13.30
- 2–17.2%13.81
- 1–07.1%14.16
- 0–06.9%14.41
- 2–25.6%17.89
- 1–34.7%21.20
- 2–04.7%21.32
Winning margin
4.1%
Genclerbirligi by 3+
fair 24.60
8.4%
Genclerbirligi by 2
fair 11.88
17.0%
Genclerbirligi by 1
fair 5.89
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.79
21.7%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 1
fair 4.62
13.5%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 2
fair 7.41
9.0%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 3+
fair 11.06
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Genclerbirligi goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Istanbul Basaksehir goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi win | 29.5% | 30.2% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Istanbul Basaksehir win | 44.2% | 43.2% | +1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 51.6% | +0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.0% | 55.8% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Genclerbirligi | 1.22 | 1.23 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Istanbul Basaksehir | 1.54 | 1.51 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genclerbirligi win29.5%3.40
- Draw26.4%3.79
- Istanbul Basaksehir win44.2%2.26
- Double chance Genclerbirligi or draw55.8%1.79
- Double chance Genclerbirligi or Istanbul Basaksehir73.6%1.36
- Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or draw70.5%1.42
- Draw no bet Genclerbirligi40.0%2.50
- Draw no bet Istanbul Basaksehir60.0%1.67
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.576.9%1.30
- Over 2.552.2%1.92
- Over 3.530.0%3.34
- Over 4.514.7%6.82
- Under 1.523.1%4.33
- Under 2.547.8%2.09
- Under 3.570.0%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.0%1.78
- No44.0%2.27
- Yes and over 2.543.5%2.30
- Genclerbirligi win and yes15.0%6.65
- Draw and yes19.4%5.15
- Istanbul Basaksehir win and yes21.6%4.63
Team goals
- Genclerbirligi over 0.570.5%1.42
- Genclerbirligi over 1.534.4%2.90
- Genclerbirligi over 2.512.5%8.02
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.578.6%1.27
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.545.7%2.19
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.520.2%4.94
- Genclerbirligi clean sheet21.4%4.68
- Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet29.5%3.38
- Genclerbirligi win to nil14.4%6.94
- Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil22.6%4.42
Handicap
- Genclerbirligi −1.512.5%8.01
- Genclerbirligi −2.54.1%24.60
- Istanbul Basaksehir +1.587.5%1.14
- Istanbul Basaksehir +2.595.9%1.04
- Istanbul Basaksehir −1.522.5%4.44
- Genclerbirligi +1.577.5%1.29
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored99
Favourite won49.5%
Avg chance given to result40.5%
1X2 Brier0.586
Over 2.5 called right52.5%
BTTS called right47.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 15 | 38.2% | 26.7% |
| 40–50% | 45 | 43.9% | 37.8% |
| 50–60% | 21 | 55.2% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 65.9% | 72.7% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 75.9% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 75 of 99 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5955 | 0.5742 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.9% | 41.6% |
| Favourite won | 52.0% | 54.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 75 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 99 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.