Genclerbirligi vs Samsunspor – 18 Jan 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 18 Sun, Jan 18 · 14:00 Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

Genclerbirligi 11th · 18 pts · 17 played LLWDW

1–1Full time

Samsunspor 7th · 25 pts · 17 played DDLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Genclerbirligi32.6%fair odds 3.07

Draw27.4%fair odds 3.66

Samsunspor40.0%fair odds 2.50

Expected goals1.24 – 1.40total 2.64

Likeliest score1–113.0%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Genclerbirligi

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Samsunspor

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Genclerbirligi ↓ · Samsunspor →	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	7.8	9.3	7.0	3.3	1.1	0.3	0.1
1	8.2	13.0	8.7	4.1	1.4	0.4	0.1
2	5.5	7.7	5.4	2.5	0.9	0.2	0.1
3	2.3	3.2	2.2	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
4	0.7	1.0	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
5	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
6+	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genclerbirligi goals, columns Samsunspor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

1–113.0%7.67
0–19.3%10.73
1–28.7%11.53
1–08.2%12.23
0–07.8%12.86
2–17.7%13.02
0–27.0%14.30
2–05.5%18.24
2–25.4%18.58
1–34.1%24.68

Winning margin

4.7% Genclerbirligi by 3+ fair 21.20

9.4% Genclerbirligi by 2 fair 10.60

18.4% Genclerbirligi by 1 fair 5.42

27.4% Draw fair 3.66

20.9% Samsunspor by 1 fair 4.78

12.0% Samsunspor by 2 fair 8.31

7.1% Samsunspor by 3+ fair 14.07

Goal distribution

Total goals

8%0

18%1

26%2

22%3

14%4

13%5+

Genclerbirligi goals

29%0

36%1

22%2

9%3

4%4+

Samsunspor goals

25%0

35%1

24%2

11%3

5%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

	LOAD90	EloLambda	Change
Genclerbirligi win	32.6%	33.3%	-0.7 pp
Draw	27.4%	27.2%	+0.2 pp
Samsunspor win	40.0%	39.5%	+0.5 pp
Over 2.5	49.2%	50.1%	-0.9 pp
Both teams score	54.2%	55.0%	-0.8 pp
Expected goals Genclerbirligi	1.24	1.27	-0.03
Expected goals Samsunspor	1.40	1.41	-0.01

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

Genclerbirligi win32.6%3.07
Draw27.4%3.66
Samsunspor win40.0%2.50
Double chance Genclerbirligi or draw60.0%1.67
Double chance Genclerbirligi or Samsunspor72.6%1.38
Double chance Samsunspor or draw67.4%1.48
Draw no bet Genclerbirligi44.9%2.23
Draw no bet Samsunspor55.1%1.81

Goals

Over 0.592.2%1.08
Over 1.574.7%1.34
Over 2.549.2%2.03
Over 3.527.3%3.66
Over 4.512.9%7.78
Under 1.525.3%3.96
Under 2.550.8%1.97
Under 3.572.7%1.38

Both teams to score

Yes54.2%1.84
No45.8%2.19
Yes and over 2.541.2%2.43
Genclerbirligi win and yes15.7%6.35
Draw and yes19.6%5.11
Samsunspor win and yes18.9%5.29

Team goals

Genclerbirligi over 0.571.1%1.41
Genclerbirligi over 1.535.2%2.84
Genclerbirligi over 2.513.0%7.72
Samsunspor over 0.575.4%1.33
Samsunspor over 1.540.9%2.45
Samsunspor over 2.516.7%5.99
Genclerbirligi clean sheet24.6%4.06
Samsunspor clean sheet28.9%3.46
Genclerbirligi win to nil16.9%5.93
Samsunspor win to nil21.1%4.73

Handicap

Genclerbirligi −1.514.2%7.07
Genclerbirligi −2.54.7%21.20
Samsunspor +1.585.8%1.16
Samsunspor +2.595.3%1.05
Samsunspor −1.519.1%5.22
Genclerbirligi +1.580.9%1.24

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored156 Favourite won46.8% Avg chance given to result40.2% 1X2 Brier0.597 Over 2.5 called right51.9% BTTS called right50.0%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chance	Matches	Predicted	Actually won
30–40%	22	38.0%	27.3%
40–50%	67	44.4%	34.3%
50–60%	38	54.9%	55.3%
60–70%	16	65.4%	75.0%
70–80%	11	76.4%	81.8%
80%+	2	82.6%	100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 130 of 156 scored matches.

	LOAD90	Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)	0.6049	0.5886
Avg chance given to result	39.8%	41.1%
Favourite won	47.7%	50.0%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 130 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 156 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.