Genclerbirligi vs Samsunspor – 18 Jan 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 18 Sun, Jan 18 · 14:00 Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

Genclerbirligi 11th · 18 pts · 17 played LLWDW

1–1Full time

Samsunspor 7th · 25 pts · 17 played DDLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 14). Absences weigh more on Samsunspor. Genclerbirligi had 26.9 days of rest, Samsunspor 27.9 and had to travel 331 km.

Away travel331 kmRest days26.9 · 27.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Genclerbirligi33%

Draw27%

Samsunspor40%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.40

Genclerbirligi31%

Draw27%

Samsunspor42%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.47

Genclerbirligi30%

Draw27%

Samsunspor43%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.47

Genclerbirligi26%

Draw26%

Samsunspor47%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.57

Genclerbirligi33%

Draw27%

Samsunspor40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ankara)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 11

Team strength

Genclerbirligi

Samsunspor

14 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

15 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

13 AttackIn forecast 15

16 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genclerbirligi

Attack—

Defense risk—

Samsunspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genclerbirligi

Samsunspor

1.24 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

1.41 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.18

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

+0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

71% Scored inContext 76%

18% Clean sheetsContext 24%

10.47 ShotsContext 12.35

3.81 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25

34% On target shareContext 32%

6.29 Shots in the boxContext 7.47

58% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.14

15.00 Shots allowedContext 11.65

4.24 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.47

4.31 BlocksContext 3.00

2.82 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.93

67% Save rateContext 75%

41% PossessionIn forecast 51%

300 PassesContext 397

234 Accurate passesContext 325

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.78

12.12 FoulsContext 14.35

13.24 Fouls sufferedContext 10.59

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.12

0.12 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

70% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.60 ShotsContext 12.00

4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.56

37% On target shareContext 34%

7.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.90

61% Box shareContext 57%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.67

14.30 Shots allowedContext 10.10

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

4.00 BlocksContext 3.25

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

67% Save rateContext 56%

42% PossessionIn forecast 53%

312 PassesContext 440

246 Accurate passesContext 364

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.60 FoulsContext 14.20

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genclerbirligi

Rest26.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Samsunspor

Rest27.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel331 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genclerbirligi	Samsunspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	26.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Dec	27.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	331 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genclerbirligi Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

24Ricardo Velho(G)

2T. da Silva 4Žan Žužek 6D. Goutas 13Pedro Pereira

15A. Dele-Bashiru

10M. Mimaroğlu 70F. Tongya 35O. Ülgün 11G. Gürpüz

22S. Koïta

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Samsunspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Kocuk(G)

28S. Gönül 15Ali Diabaté 37Ľ. Šatka 18Z. Yavru

5C. Yüksel 55Y. Çift

16T. Bulbul 20Y. Kayan 2J. Mendes

9Marius

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genclerbirligi Absences are shown before kick-off

Samsunspor Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Genclerbirligi+2.6 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Samsunspor-2.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Genclerbirligi · Home 1.63points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-3
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.50

Samsunspor · Away 1.50points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-2
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 1.38

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Genclerbirligi	Samsunspor
Trabzonspor	W 4–3 H	D 1–1 A
Kasimpasa	D 0–0 A	D 0–0 H
Fatih Karagümrük	W 3–0 H	W 3–2 H
Kocaelispor	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 A
Galatasaray	L 2–3 A	L 2–3 A
Istanbul Basaksehir	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 H
Goztepe	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
Konyaspor	L 1–2 H	W 3–1 A
Besiktas	W 2–1 A	D 1–1 A
Alanyaspor	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 H
Kayserispor	D 1–1 A	W 3–1 A
Eyüpspor	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
Rizespor	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Fenerbahce	L 1–3 H	D 0–0 H
Gazişehir Gaziantep	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 A
Antalyaspor	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 H
Points	18 of 48 · 1.13 per game	22 of 48 · 1.38 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Genclerbirligi wins0 draws1 Samsunspor wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

9 Aug 2025Samsunspor2–1Genclerbirligi

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genclerbirligi	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.24	1.29
Conceded per game	1.41	1.18
Match goals	2.65	2.47	2.64
Over 1.5	65%	76%
Over 2.5	59%	41%	49%
Over 3.5	24%	29%
Both teams scored	59%	65%	54%
Clean sheets	18%	24%
Failed to score	29%	24%
Games	17	17

	Genclerbirligi	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.20
Conceded per game	1.40	1.20
Match goals	3.00	2.40	2.64
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	30%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	54%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genclerbirligi	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.31	5.13
Corners conceded	4.88	4.38
Match total	9.19	9.51	9.37
Over 8.5	63% 10/16	56% 9/16
Over 9.5	50% 8/16	44% 7/16
Over 10.5	50% 8/16	44% 7/16
Cards
Cards	2.29	2.24
Opponent cards	2.12	1.82
Match total	4.41	4.06	4.69
Over 3.5	59% 10/17	59% 10/17
Over 4.5	53% 9/17	41% 7/17

	Genclerbirligi	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	4.11
Corners conceded	5.20	3.00
Match total	9.40	7.11	9.37
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.60
Opponent cards	2.10	1.50
Match total	4.30	3.10	4.69
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 11 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.55league 4.44

Red cards0.09league 0.24

Cards 5+45%league 46%

Fouls28.9league 25.8

Penalties0.18league 0.26

Home wins36%league 37%

Genclerbirligi

No previous matches with this referee.

Samsunspor1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D1 Dec 25H · Alanyaspor1–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.