Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Genk
11th · 29 pts · 23 played
DLLDW
First leg1–1
2–0Full time
Anderlecht
4th · 36 pts · 23 played
DLLDL
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Genk had 6.9 days of rest, Anderlecht 7 and had to travel 82 km.
Away travel82 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Genk44%
Draw26%
Anderlecht30%
Genk43%
Draw27%
Anderlecht30%
Genk44%
Draw26%
Anderlecht30%
Genk37%
Draw26%
Anderlecht37%
Genk44%
Draw26%
Anderlecht30%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 43
Team strength
GenkAnderlecht
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
41
46
AttackIn forecast
37
50
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkAnderlecht
1.35
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
87%
Scored inContext
74%
4%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
15.30
ShotsContext
14.78
5.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.61
36%
On target shareContext
31%
9.32
Shots in the boxContext
8.96
60%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.26
Shots allowedContext
11.43
4.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.38
BlocksContext
2.83
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.36
68%
Save rateContext
62%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
550
PassesContext
434
477
Accurate passesContext
353
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.17
FoulsContext
13.39
12.87
Fouls sufferedContext
11.35
1.26
Yellow cardsContext
2.57
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.50
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.40
ShotsContext
14.70
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
42%
On target shareContext
27%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
64%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.63
13.60
Shots allowedContext
12.10
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.10
BlocksContext
2.60
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
70%
Save rateContext
61%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
503
PassesContext
421
424
Accurate passesContext
341
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.40
FoulsContext
12.80
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km201 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Anderlecht
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel82 km178 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 82 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 201 km | 178 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.3 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
38D. Heymans
8B. Heynen
19Y. Medina
20K. Karetsas
10J. Ito
77Z. El Ouahdi
23A. Bibout
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
79A. Maamar
15M. Ilić
3L. Hey
54K. Sardella
13N. Saliba
24E. Llansana
83T. Degreef
10Y. Verschaeren
77Coba
14D. Sikan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
1.18points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-4
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.55
Anderlecht · Away
1.09points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-5
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Genk | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| Dender | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | L 2–3 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 3–5 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Charleroi | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–4 AW 5–2 H |
| Antwerp | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Gent | D 1–1 A | L 2–4 AW 1–0 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 28 of 66 · 1.27 per game | 35 of 66 · 1.59 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Genk wins2 draws1 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 14 Sep 2025Anderlecht1–1Genk
- 23 Dec 2023Anderlecht2–1Genk
- 3 Sep 2023Genk1–1Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.35 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.87 | 2.52 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 39% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 43% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 4% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 26% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Genk | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.50 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.55 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.95 | 4.39 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.61 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 13/22 | 83% 19/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 10/22 | 70% 16/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 7/22 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.65 | 2.52 | |
| Match total | 3.95 | 5.22 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 13/23 | 74% 17/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 70% 16/23 | |
| Genk | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 11.40 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 6.00 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 3.88
Red cards0.28league 0.20
Cards 5+33%league 41%
Fouls23.4league 22.9
Penalties0.47league 0.29
Home wins56%league 40%
Genk5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L7 Dec 25A · Antwerp0–31
- L27 Jul 25A · Club Brugge KV1–22
- L3 Mar 24H · Club Brugge KV0–32
- D20 Jan 24H · Cercle Brugge1–12
- D8 Oct 23A · Gent1–13
Anderlecht4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds2
- L31 Aug 25A · Union St. Gilloise0–26
- D28 Jan 24H · Union St. Gilloise2–23
- D12 Nov 23A · Gent1–12
- W6 Aug 23H · Antwerp1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk23 games · scored 31 · conceded 35
7
9
0-15
6
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
6
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
9
76-90
Anderlecht23 games · scored 30 · conceded 28
6
4
0-15
4
6
16-30
2
3
31-45
6
5
46-60
7
1
61-75
5
9
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
3
5
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
