Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
FC Basel 1893 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 39). Absences weigh more on Genk. Genk had 4.3 days of rest, FC Basel 1893 21.1 and had to travel 408 km.
Away travel408 kmRest days4.3 · 21.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Genk39%
Draw26%
FC Basel 189335%
Genk39%
Draw27%
FC Basel 189333%
Genk41%
Draw26%
FC Basel 189333%
Genk32%
Draw26%
FC Basel 189342%
Genk38%
Draw27%
FC Basel 189335%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeOrel Grinfeeld
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 17
Team strength
Genk
FC Basel 1893
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
41
46
AttackIn forecast
36
50
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Basel 1893
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkFC Basel 1893
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
50%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.25
ShotsContext
14.75
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.75
36%
On target shareContext
32%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.75
62%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.75
OffsidesContext
—
11.75
Shots allowedContext
19.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.67
BlocksContext
6.25
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
69%
Save rateContext
83%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
436
PassesContext
401
372
Accurate passesContext
322
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.00
FoulsContext
14.75
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.25
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.68
70%
Scored inContext
75%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
13.50
ShotsContext
13.88
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.75
36%
On target shareContext
34%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.25
55%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.40
Shots allowedContext
15.88
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.88
4.13
BlocksContext
4.50
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
77%
Save rateContext
75%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
541
PassesContext
422
465
Accurate passesContext
346
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.70
FoulsContext
14.13
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Basel 1893
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel408 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
FC Basel 1893 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 21.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 408 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
19Y. Medina
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
17P. Hrošovský
14Y. Sor
38D. Heymans
20K. Karetsas
9H. Oh
FC Basel 1893
Confirmed XI
1M. Hitz(G)
31D. Schmid
24F. Daniliuc
32J. Adjetey
6K. Tsunemoto
14A. Bacanin
5A. Silu
22L. Leroy
7P. Otele
17M. Broschinski
11B. Traoré
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Basel 1893
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk-1.7 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Basel 1893+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
FC Basel 1893 · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | FC Basel 1893 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.75 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 25% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Genk | FC Basel 1893 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.75 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | FC Basel 1893 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 9.25 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 3.75 | 4.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Genk | FC Basel 1893 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 8.76 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.51 | 4.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Orel Grinfeeld 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 4.06
Red cards0.29league 0.16
Cards 5+47%league 41%
Fouls26.0league 24.7
Penalties0.29league 0.40
Home wins59%league 49%
GenkNo previous matches with this referee.
FC Basel 1893No previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk4 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
FC Basel 18934 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
FC Basel 18938 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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