Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genk38.8%fair odds 2.57
Draw26.3%fair odds 3.81
FC Basel 189334.9%fair odds 2.87
Expected goals1.47 – 1.38total 2.84
Likeliest score1–112.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC Basel 1893
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genk ↓ · FC Basel 1893 → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genk goals, columns FC Basel 1893 goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%8.08
- 2–18.6%11.61
- 1–28.1%12.34
- 1–07.9%12.65
- 0–17.4%13.52
- 0–06.4%15.53
- 2–06.3%16.00
- 2–25.9%16.84
- 0–25.5%18.10
- 3–14.2%23.75
Winning margin
7.2%
Genk by 3+
fair 13.91
11.7%
Genk by 2
fair 8.56
20.0%
Genk by 1
fair 5.01
26.3%
Draw
fair 3.81
18.7%
FC Basel 1893 by 1
fair 5.34
10.3%
FC Basel 1893 by 2
fair 9.68
5.8%
FC Basel 1893 by 3+
fair 17.15
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Genk goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
FC Basel 1893 goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 38.8% | 37.7% | +1.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.3% | 27.2% | -0.9 pp |
| FC Basel 1893 win | 34.9% | 35.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 50.4% | +3.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.2% | 55.3% | +2.8 pp |
| Expected goals Genk | 1.47 | 1.37 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals FC Basel 1893 | 1.38 | 1.32 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genk win38.8%2.57
- Draw26.3%3.81
- FC Basel 1893 win34.9%2.87
- Double chance Genk or draw65.1%1.54
- Double chance Genk or FC Basel 189373.7%1.36
- Double chance FC Basel 1893 or draw61.2%1.63
- Draw no bet Genk52.7%1.90
- Draw no bet FC Basel 189347.3%2.11
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.578.3%1.28
- Over 2.554.1%1.85
- Over 3.531.8%3.15
- Over 4.515.9%6.28
- Under 1.521.7%4.60
- Under 2.545.9%2.18
- Under 3.568.2%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes58.2%1.72
- No41.8%2.39
- Yes and over 2.545.8%2.18
- Genk win and yes20.1%4.98
- Draw and yes19.8%5.04
- FC Basel 1893 win and yes18.2%5.48
Team goals
- Genk over 0.576.9%1.30
- Genk over 1.543.1%2.32
- Genk over 2.518.3%5.48
- FC Basel 1893 over 0.574.8%1.34
- FC Basel 1893 over 1.540.1%2.50
- FC Basel 1893 over 2.516.1%6.20
- Genk clean sheet25.2%3.97
- FC Basel 1893 clean sheet23.1%4.33
- Genk win to nil18.8%5.33
- FC Basel 1893 win to nil16.6%6.01
Handicap
- Genk −1.518.9%5.30
- Genk −2.57.2%13.91
- FC Basel 1893 +1.581.1%1.23
- FC Basel 1893 +2.592.8%1.08
- FC Basel 1893 −1.516.2%6.19
- Genk +1.583.8%1.19
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored81
Favourite won53.1%
Avg chance given to result40.1%
1X2 Brier0.590
Over 2.5 called right50.6%
BTTS called right50.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 38.6% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 33 | 44.6% | 45.5% |
| 50–60% | 29 | 54.8% | 69.0% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 66.0% | 28.6% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.7% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 63 of 81 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5892 | 0.5931 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.4% | 40.9% |
| Favourite won | 52.4% | 58.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 63 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 81 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.