Genk vs Ferencvarosi TC – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 20:00 Cegeka Arena, Genk

Genk 13th · 3 pts · 1 played W

0–1Full time

Ferencvarosi TC 23rd · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Genk were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Genk. Genk had 4.3 days of rest, Ferencvarosi TC 7 and had to travel 1,054 km.

Away travel1,054 kmRest days4.3 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1

Genk43%

Draw26%

Ferencvarosi TC31%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.30

Genk43%

Draw27%

Ferencvarosi TC30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Genk44%

Draw26%

Ferencvarosi TC30%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.27

Genk36%

Draw26%

Ferencvarosi TC38%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.45

Genk42%

Draw27%

Ferencvarosi TC31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.24

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Genk)

No weather data yet

Referee · GreeceAnastasios Sidiropoulos

Cards per match 5.8
Penalties per match 0.45
Matches 58

Team strength

Genk

Ferencvarosi TC

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 40

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

46 AttackIn forecast 61

50 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genk

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ferencvarosi TC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genk

Ferencvarosi TC

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.85

90% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.70 ShotsContext 13.00

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

35% On target shareContext 31%

10.38 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

65% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.17

10.80 Shots allowedContext 11.40

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

3.22 BlocksContext 3.25

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

71% Save rateContext 60%

62% PossessionIn forecast 48%

519 PassesContext 359

456 Accurate passesContext 280

88% Pass accuracyContext 78%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.96

11.30 FoulsContext 15.60

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genk

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,689 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Ferencvarosi TC

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,054 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genk	Ferencvarosi TC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Sep	7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,054 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,689 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	20.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Genk Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1H. Van Crombrugge(G)

18J. Kayembe 6M. Smets 3Mujaid Sadick 77Z. El Ouahdi

21I. Bangoura 17P. Hrošovský 8B. Heynen

10J. Ito 9H. Oh 7J. Steuckers

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Ferencvarosi TC Confirmed XI

3-5-2

90D. Dibusz(G)

27I. Cissé 28T. Raemaekers 3S. Gartenmann

47C. O'Dowda 64A. Tóth 5N. Keïta 10J. Levi 20Cadu

75L. Joseph 19B. Varga

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genk Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Ferencvarosi TC Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Genk-0.9 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Ferencvarosi TC+0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Genk · Home No home games yet this season.

Ferencvarosi TC · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Genk wins2 draws0 Ferencvarosi TC wins

Goals per game0.50 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 50%

9 Nov 2023Ferencvarosi TC1–1Genk
26 Oct 2023Genk0–0Ferencvarosi TC

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genk	Ferencvarosi TC	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	2.00	2.88
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Genk	Ferencvarosi TC	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.00
Conceded per game	1.30	1.00
Match goals	2.60	2.00	2.88
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	0%	55%
Over 3.5	10%	0%
Both teams scored	80%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	10%	0%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genk	Ferencvarosi TC	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	3.00
Corners conceded	4.00	3.00
Match total	6.00	6.00	9.52
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	4.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	5.00	6.00	4.37
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Genk	Ferencvarosi TC	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	4.30
Corners conceded	3.60	3.90
Match total	9.20	8.20	9.52
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.30
Opponent cards	2.50	2.10
Match total	4.60	4.40	4.37
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anastasios Sidiropoulos Greece · 58 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.41league 4.19

Red cards0.36league 0.19

Cards 5+69%league 41%

Fouls26.8league 26.3

Penalties0.45league 0.30

Home wins40%league 37%

Genk1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L3 Aug 21H · Shakhtar Donetsk1–22

Ferencvarosi TC1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W24 Oct 24H · Nice1–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.