Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Genk. Genk had 2.7 days of rest, Gent 8.7 and had to travel 125 km.
Away travel125 kmRest days2.7 · 8.7Matches / 14d3 · 1
Genk58%
Draw22%
Gent20%
Genk46%
Draw26%
Gent27%
Genk58%
Draw22%
Gent20%
Genk50%
Draw24%
Gent26%
Genk57%
Draw23%
Gent20%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 36
Team strength
Genk
Gent
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
46
AttackIn forecast
46
50
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkGent
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.58
1.54
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
85%
Scored inContext
81%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
15.38
ShotsContext
12.65
5.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.35
37%
On target shareContext
34%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.27
60%
Box shareContext
65%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.39
12.08
Shots allowedContext
13.88
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.77
3.29
BlocksContext
4.09
3.12
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.52
68%
Save rateContext
73%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
544
PassesContext
433
472
Accurate passesContext
355
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.00
FoulsContext
10.58
12.81
Fouls sufferedContext
10.81
1.31
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.70
ShotsContext
12.00
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
44%
On target shareContext
34%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
70%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.71
13.30
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.90
BlocksContext
4.20
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
77%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
499
PassesContext
376
424
Accurate passesContext
299
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.20
FoulsContext
10.30
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,922 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Gent
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel125 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 26 Feb | 8.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 125 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,922 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 6 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
24N. Sattlberger
8B. Heynen
32N. Adedeji-Sternberg
38D. Heymans
7J. Steuckers
29Robin Mirisola
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
20Tiago Araújo
44S. Van der Heyden
57Matties Volckaert
4D. Hashioka
22Leonardo Lopes
15A. Ito
8M. Skóraś
37A. Kadri
11M. Sonko
7A. Kanga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
1.23points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-5
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.54
Gent · Away
1.23points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-5
- Scored
- 1.46
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Genk | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | L 0–3 HL 1–2 A | W 4–0 AW 4–0 H |
| KV Mechelen | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Anderlecht | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 4–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Dender | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | L 0–1 HW 4–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 3–5 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Charleroi | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Antwerp | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–3 HL 0–4 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| St. Truiden | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Points | 34 of 75 · 1.36 per game | 35 of 75 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Genk wins3 draws0 Gent wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 9 Nov 2025Gent1–1Genk
- 3 Dec 2023Genk2–2Gent
- 8 Oct 2023Gent1–1Genk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.54 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.92 | 3.04 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 58% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 62% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 19% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Genk | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.10 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.04 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 9.64 | 10.38 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 15/25 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 12/25 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 9/25 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.35 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.46 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.81 | 3.73 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 14/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 10/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Genk | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 6.56 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 11.34 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.44league 3.88
Red cards0.14league 0.19
Cards 5+50%league 41%
Fouls22.4league 22.8
Penalties0.33league 0.31
Home wins44%league 41%
Genk2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Feb 26A · Dender2–10
- D3 Dec 23H · Gent2–22
Gent9 with this referee
Record2-4-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L14 Dec 25H · Antwerp0–21
- L23 Sep 25A · Anderlecht0–13
- D16 Aug 25A · KV Mechelen1–11
- L4 Feb 24A · Anderlecht0–14
- D3 Dec 23A · Genk2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk26 games · scored 36 · conceded 40
7
9
0-15
7
4
16-30
3
9
31-45
6
6
46-60
5
3
61-75
8
9
76-90
Gent26 games · scored 41 · conceded 38
6
2
0-15
5
10
16-30
5
7
31-45
7
3
46-60
4
6
61-75
14
10
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
