Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genk74.3%fair odds 1.35
Draw16.2%fair odds 6.18
Kortrijk9.5%fair odds 10.53
Expected goals2.55 – 0.82total 3.37
Likeliest score2–011.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Kortrijk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genk ↓ · Kortrijk → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genk goals, columns Kortrijk goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.2%8.95
- 3–09.5%10.54
- 2–19.2%10.90
- 1–08.4%11.92
- 3–17.8%12.83
- 1–17.6%13.18
- 4–06.0%16.56
- 4–15.0%20.16
- 0–03.8%26.13
- 2–23.8%26.52
Winning margin
31.6%
Genk by 3+
fair 3.16
21.3%
Genk by 2
fair 4.69
21.4%
Genk by 1
fair 4.67
16.2%
Draw
fair 6.18
6.6%
Kortrijk by 1
fair 15.06
2.2%
Kortrijk by 2
fair 45.09
0.6%
Kortrijk by 3+
fair 156.37
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Genk goals
8%0
20%1
25%2
22%3
25%4+
Kortrijk goals
44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 74.3% | 74.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 16.2% | 16.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Kortrijk win | 9.5% | 9.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 65.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.0% | 52.4% | -0.4 pp |
| Expected goals Genk | 2.55 | 2.54 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Kortrijk | 0.82 | 0.83 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genk win74.3%1.35
- Draw16.2%6.18
- Kortrijk win9.5%10.53
- Double chance Genk or draw90.5%1.10
- Double chance Genk or Kortrijk83.8%1.19
- Double chance Kortrijk or draw25.7%3.89
- Draw no bet Genk88.7%1.13
- Draw no bet Kortrijk11.3%8.82
Goals
- Over 0.596.2%1.04
- Over 1.585.3%1.17
- Over 2.565.4%1.53
- Over 3.543.5%2.30
- Over 4.525.0%4.00
- Under 1.514.7%6.82
- Under 2.534.6%2.89
- Under 3.556.5%1.77
Both teams to score
- Yes52.0%1.92
- No48.0%2.08
- Yes and over 2.544.4%2.25
- Genk win and yes34.2%2.93
- Draw and yes12.4%8.09
- Kortrijk win and yes5.5%18.21
Team goals
- Genk over 0.592.2%1.08
- Genk over 1.572.2%1.38
- Genk over 2.546.8%2.14
- Kortrijk over 0.556.0%1.78
- Kortrijk over 1.519.9%5.03
- Kortrijk over 2.55.1%19.77
- Genk clean sheet44.0%2.27
- Kortrijk clean sheet7.8%12.77
- Genk win to nil40.1%2.49
- Kortrijk win to nil4.0%24.96
Handicap
- Genk −1.552.9%1.89
- Genk −2.531.6%3.16
- Kortrijk +1.547.1%2.12
- Kortrijk +2.568.4%1.46
- Kortrijk −1.52.9%35.00
- Genk +1.597.1%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored66
Favourite won62.1%
Avg chance given to result45.3%
1X2 Brier0.500
Over 2.5 called right57.6%
BTTS called right45.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 38.3% | 16.7% |
| 40–50% | 29 | 45.5% | 48.3% |
| 50–60% | 18 | 55.1% | 77.8% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 64.8% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 72.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 42 of 66 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5066 | 0.5111 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.6% | 44.3% |
| Favourite won | 61.9% | 64.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 42 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓RAAL La Louvière 1–4 Club Brugge KV12·17·70
- ✓Cercle Brugge 1–2 Anderlecht32·24·44
- ✗SK Beveren 1–3 Lommel United37·25·37
- ✗Kortrijk 1–0 SK Beveren31·25·44
- ✓Club Brugge KV 3–0 Genk59·20·21
- ✗St. Truiden 0–2 KVC Westerlo57·21·22
- ✓Antwerp 0–2 Union St. Gilloise17·19·64
- ✓Anderlecht 3–0 Zulte Waregem49·24·27
- ✗Lommel United 0–0 KV Mechelen55·24·22
- ✓Charleroi 3–2 Cercle Brugge58·22·20
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 66 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.