Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genk were clear favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Genk. Genk had 20.1 days of rest, Kortrijk 20.1 and had to travel 158 km.
Away travel158 kmRest days20.1 · 20.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Genk75%
Draw15%
Kortrijk10%
Genk69%
Draw18%
Kortrijk12%
Genk75%
Draw15%
Kortrijk10%
Genk68%
Draw19%
Kortrijk14%
Genk74%
Draw16%
Kortrijk10%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeWim Smet
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 17
Team strength
Genk
Kortrijk
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
46
AttackIn forecast
10
50
DefenceIn forecast
16
39
Form indexContext
11
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKortrijk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkKortrijk
1.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.29
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
2.28
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.34
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
71%
Scored inContext
29%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
14.00
ShotsContext
11.71
4.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.86
35%
On target shareContext
24%
9.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
67%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
2%
2.80
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.29
Shots allowedContext
14.43
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.14
5.83
BlocksContext
3.14
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
66%
Save rateContext
61%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
478
PassesContext
400
411
Accurate passesContext
316
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.47
11.43
FoulsContext
12.29
10.43
Fouls sufferedContext
9.86
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
2.10
xGVia Att/Def
—
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.60
Goals minus xGContext
—
60%
Scored inContext
40%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.30
ShotsContext
11.20
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
35%
On target shareContext
29%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
67%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
5%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.75
13.60
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
5.33
BlocksContext
3.40
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
74%
Save rateContext
66%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
481
PassesContext
387
412
Accurate passesContext
296
86%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.63
11.80
FoulsContext
11.80
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
DWDDL
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 6 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Kortrijk
LLLLW
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel158 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 3 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
Kortrijk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 20.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 158 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.7 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
28L. Brughmans(G)
18J. Kayembe
44J. Kongolo
6M. Smets
20K. Amaro
8B. Heynen
38D. Heymans
4B. Tahirović
32N. Adedeji-Sternberg
17R. Durosinmi
10J. Ito
Kortrijk
Confirmed XI
1P. Gunnarsson(G)
3M. Anderson
4H. Murray-Campbell
21A. Drouhin
36R. Kohon
70A. Phillips
35B. Lambert
19B. Dejaegere
68T. Ambrose
10G. Koyalipou
11S. Campbell
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Kortrijk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Kortrijk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Kortrijk · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Genk | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| Anderlecht | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| SK Beveren | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Antwerp | D 4–4 A | L 0–3 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Genk wins0 draws0 Kortrijk wins
Goals per game3.50 – 0.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 17 Dec 2023Genk4–0Kortrijk
- 29 Oct 2023Kortrijk0–3Genk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | Kortrijk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 0.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 3.57 | 2.43 | 3.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 14% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 71% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Genk | Kortrijk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 2.43 | 3.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 57% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 14% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 71% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | Kortrijk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.57 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.14 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 9.66 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 3.57 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Genk | Kortrijk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 10.55 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wim Smet 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.24league 3.12
Red cards0.12league 0.14
Cards 5+29%league 27%
Fouls21.9league 22.0
Penalties0.12league 0.26
Home wins53%league 48%
Genk3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D12 Apr 26H · OH Leuven0–02
- W12 Nov 23H · OH Leuven3–12
- L5 Aug 23H · AS Eupen0–11
Kortrijk2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L9 Feb 24A · St. Truiden0–12
- L20 Dec 23A · Cercle Brugge0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk7 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Kortrijk7 games · scored 2 · conceded 15
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
4
61-75
5
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Kortrijk10 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
46-60
2
5
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
