Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 32). Genk had 13.8 days of rest, KV Mechelen 13.8 and had to travel 72 km.
Away travel72 kmRest days13.8 · 13.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Genk51%
Draw25%
KV Mechelen24%
Genk50%
Draw26%
KV Mechelen25%
Genk51%
Draw25%
KV Mechelen24%
Genk43%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen30%
Genk50%
Draw26%
KV Mechelen25%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 33
Team strength
Genk
KV Mechelen
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
46
AttackIn forecast
18
50
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkKV Mechelen
1.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
93%
Scored inContext
93%
7%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
15.29
ShotsContext
10.43
5.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
38%
9.38
Shots in the boxContext
7.46
59%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.80
11.71
Shots allowedContext
15.71
4.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
3.46
BlocksContext
4.86
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.31
71%
Save rateContext
88%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
556
PassesContext
386
486
Accurate passesContext
316
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.21
FoulsContext
9.07
13.64
Fouls sufferedContext
11.07
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.40
ShotsContext
12.00
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
34%
On target shareContext
36%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
59%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.60
Shots allowedContext
14.10
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.22
BlocksContext
4.30
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
76%
Save rateContext
85%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
523
PassesContext
391
450
Accurate passesContext
320
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.80
FoulsContext
9.30
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km250 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KV Mechelen
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel72 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 13.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 72 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 250 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.3 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
19Y. Medina
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
44J. Kongolo
8B. Heynen
17P. Hrošovský
14Y. Sor
38D. Heymans
7J. Steuckers
9H. Oh
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
18Ian Struyf
8M. Konaté
33T. St. Jago
3José Marsà
6F. Hammar
17Mathis Servais
7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode
14B. Raman
20L. Lauberbach
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
1.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
KV Mechelen · Away
1.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Genk | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Dender | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Charleroi | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Anderlecht | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 20 of 42 · 1.43 per game | 21 of 42 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Genk wins1 draws0 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 11 Feb 2024KV Mechelen1–1Genk
- 22 Oct 2023Genk4–0KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.36 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.57 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 79% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 7% | 7% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Genk | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.21 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.79 | 6.93 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 11.64 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 7/14 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 5/14 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 3/14 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.64 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.79 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 3.71 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 10/14 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 7/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Genk | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 6.80 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 11.90 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.80 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 3.85
Red cards0.30league 0.22
Cards 5+39%league 42%
Fouls22.2league 23.0
Penalties0.18league 0.28
Home wins52%league 45%
Genk4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- W31 Aug 25H · Zulte Waregem3–23
- D11 Feb 24A · KV Mechelen1–12
- W17 Dec 23H · Kortrijk4–00
- D3 Sep 23H · Anderlecht1–15
KV Mechelen4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W28 Sep 25A · Charleroi2–04
- L24 Aug 25A · Antwerp1–23
- D11 Feb 24H · Genk1–11
- L12 Aug 23A · RWDM0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk14 games · scored 19 · conceded 18
4
5
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
KV Mechelen14 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
8
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
