Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genk50.7%fair odds 1.97
Draw25.3%fair odds 3.96
KV Mechelen24.0%fair odds 4.16
Expected goals1.70 – 1.10total 2.79
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
KV Mechelen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genk ↓ · KV Mechelen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genk goals, columns KV Mechelen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.34
- 1–09.8%10.24
- 2–19.7%10.35
- 2–08.8%11.37
- 0–06.7%14.89
- 1–26.3%15.98
- 0–16.1%16.36
- 3–15.5%18.31
- 2–25.3%18.84
- 3–05.0%20.12
Winning margin
12.1%
Genk by 3+
fair 8.26
15.7%
Genk by 2
fair 6.37
22.9%
Genk by 1
fair 4.36
25.3%
Draw
fair 3.96
14.6%
KV Mechelen by 1
fair 6.83
6.6%
KV Mechelen by 2
fair 15.18
2.8%
KV Mechelen by 3+
fair 35.99
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Genk goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
KV Mechelen goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 50.7% | 49.7% | +1.0 pp |
| Draw | 25.3% | 25.8% | -0.5 pp |
| KV Mechelen win | 24.0% | 24.5% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 51.4% | +1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.0% | 54.1% | +0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Genk | 1.70 | 1.64 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals KV Mechelen | 1.10 | 1.09 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genk win50.7%1.97
- Draw25.3%3.96
- KV Mechelen win24.0%4.16
- Double chance Genk or draw76.0%1.32
- Double chance Genk or KV Mechelen74.7%1.34
- Double chance KV Mechelen or draw49.3%2.03
- Draw no bet Genk67.9%1.47
- Draw no bet KV Mechelen32.1%3.11
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.4%1.29
- Over 2.552.9%1.89
- Over 3.530.7%3.26
- Over 4.515.2%6.60
- Under 1.522.6%4.43
- Under 2.547.1%2.12
- Under 3.569.3%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes55.0%1.82
- No45.0%2.22
- Yes and over 2.543.1%2.32
- Genk win and yes24.1%4.15
- Draw and yes18.5%5.39
- KV Mechelen win and yes12.4%8.07
Team goals
- Genk over 0.581.7%1.22
- Genk over 1.550.6%1.98
- Genk over 2.524.2%4.14
- KV Mechelen over 0.566.7%1.50
- KV Mechelen over 1.530.1%3.33
- KV Mechelen over 2.59.9%10.07
- Genk clean sheet33.3%3.00
- KV Mechelen clean sheet18.3%5.45
- Genk win to nil26.6%3.76
- KV Mechelen win to nil11.6%8.60
Handicap
- Genk −1.527.8%3.60
- Genk −2.512.1%8.26
- KV Mechelen +1.572.2%1.38
- KV Mechelen +2.587.9%1.14
- KV Mechelen −1.59.4%10.68
- Genk +1.590.6%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored116
Favourite won47.4%
Avg chance given to result38.8%
1X2 Brier0.603
Over 2.5 called right51.7%
BTTS called right50.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.3% | 30.0% |
| 40–50% | 62 | 44.9% | 37.1% |
| 50–60% | 21 | 55.1% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 65.2% | 90.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 78 of 116 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6020 | 0.5956 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.2% | 40.0% |
| Favourite won | 47.4% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 78 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Club Brugge KV 1–0 Charleroi73·17·10
- ✗KVC Westerlo 0–0 Gent32·27·41
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Cercle Brugge66·21·14
- ✗Standard Liege 0–0 Zulte Waregem42·28·30
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–1 Union St. Gilloise28·27·45
- ✗Gent 1–1 Genk42·26·31
- ✓St. Truiden 1–0 Standard Liege45·27·28
- ✗Anderlecht 1–0 Club Brugge KV30·27·43
- ✓Antwerp 3–1 RAAL La Louvière48·27·25
- ✓Charleroi 2–0 KVC Westerlo42·27·31
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 116 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.