Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Genk
9th · 20 pts · 15 played
DDWDL
First leg2–1
2–1Full time
OH Leuven
14th · 15 pts · 15 played
LDWWL
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 22). Genk usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Genk had 2.8 days of rest, OH Leuven 6.9 and had to travel 58 km.
Away travel58 kmRest days2.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Genk58%
Draw23%
OH Leuven18%
Genk57%
Draw24%
OH Leuven19%
Genk58%
Draw23%
OH Leuven18%
Genk51%
Draw25%
OH Leuven24%
Genk57%
Draw24%
OH Leuven19%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeWesli De Cremer
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.70
- Matches 23
Team strength
GenkOH Leuven
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
46
AttackIn forecast
17
50
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkOH Leuven
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
1.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
87%
Scored inContext
73%
7%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.53
ShotsContext
11.93
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
34%
On target shareContext
32%
9.43
Shots in the boxContext
8.29
59%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.71
11.53
Shots allowedContext
11.87
4.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.73
3.46
BlocksContext
2.79
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
72%
Save rateContext
68%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
559
PassesContext
331
489
Accurate passesContext
256
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.72
9.87
FoulsContext
16.27
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.47
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.10
ShotsContext
13.00
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
37%
On target shareContext
34%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
55%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.30
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.00
BlocksContext
2.40
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
73%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
538
PassesContext
344
462
Accurate passesContext
267
86%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.40
FoulsContext
16.90
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
OH Leuven
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel58 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
OH Leuven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 58 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
19Y. Medina
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
17P. Hrošovský
32N. Adedeji-Sternberg
38D. Heymans
20K. Karetsas
99J. Erabi
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
14H. Teklab
34R. Nyakossi
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
99D. Opoku
7T. Verlinden
24Ł. Łakomy
4B. Verstraete
33M. Maertens
19C. Ikwuemesi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
1.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.29
OH Leuven · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Genk | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Gent | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Dender | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–2 H | L 0–5 A |
| Charleroi | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Anderlecht | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 3–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 17 of 42 · 1.21 per game | 15 of 42 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Genk wins0 draws1 OH Leuven wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.33
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 15 Aug 2025OH Leuven1–2Genk
- 31 Jan 2024OH Leuven2–1Genk
- 12 Nov 2023Genk3–1OH Leuven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.27 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.53 | 2.67 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 53% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 53% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 27% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Genk | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.30 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.27 | 4.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.79 | |
| Match total | 8.94 | 9.36 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 7/15 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 5/15 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 3/15 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.53 | 3.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.93 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.46 | 5.40 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 11/15 | 80% 12/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 8/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Genk | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 8.77 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.50 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wesli De Cremer 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.83league 3.85
Red cards0.22league 0.20
Cards 5+39%league 43%
Fouls24.2league 23.1
Penalties0.70league 0.30
Home wins61%league 42%
Genk4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D19 Oct 25A · Cercle Brugge2–22
- L25 Nov 23A · Standard Liege0–12
- D1 Oct 23H · KVC Westerlo3–33
- W29 Jul 23A · RWDM4–00
OH Leuven5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.3.4 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds1
- W2 Nov 25H · Gent4–04
- L20 Sep 25H · RAAL La Louvière1–24
- L10 Aug 25A · Antwerp1–35
- L10 Feb 24A · Standard Liege0–13
- W1 Sep 23H · Kortrijk3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk15 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
4
5
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
OH Leuven15 games · scored 16 · conceded 24
2
4
0-15
5
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
