Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genk
9th · 20 pts · 15 played
DDWDL
First leg2–1
2–1Full time
OH Leuven
14th · 15 pts · 15 played
LDWWL
Genk58.3%fair odds 1.72
Draw23.3%fair odds 4.28
OH Leuven18.4%fair odds 5.44
Expected goals1.88 – 0.96total 2.84
Likeliest score1–111.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
OH Leuven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genk ↓ · OH Leuven → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genk goals, columns OH Leuven goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%9.00
- 1–010.4%9.63
- 2–010.3%9.72
- 2–19.9%10.09
- 3–06.4%15.52
- 0–06.4%15.66
- 3–16.2%16.10
- 1–25.1%19.67
- 0–15.1%19.78
- 2–24.8%20.94
Winning margin
16.4%
Genk by 3+
fair 6.10
18.1%
Genk by 2
fair 5.53
23.8%
Genk by 1
fair 4.20
23.3%
Draw
fair 4.28
11.9%
OH Leuven by 1
fair 8.39
4.8%
OH Leuven by 2
fair 21.03
1.7%
OH Leuven by 3+
fair 58.74
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Genk goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
OH Leuven goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 58.3% | 57.2% | +1.1 pp |
| Draw | 23.3% | 23.8% | -0.4 pp |
| OH Leuven win | 18.4% | 19.1% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 53.3% | +0.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.0% | 52.9% | +0.1 pp |
| Expected goals Genk | 1.88 | 1.84 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals OH Leuven | 0.96 | 0.97 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genk win58.3%1.72
- Draw23.3%4.28
- OH Leuven win18.4%5.44
- Double chance Genk or draw81.6%1.23
- Double chance Genk or OH Leuven76.7%1.30
- Double chance OH Leuven or draw41.7%2.40
- Draw no bet Genk76.0%1.32
- Draw no bet OH Leuven24.0%4.17
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.578.2%1.28
- Over 2.554.1%1.85
- Over 3.531.8%3.15
- Over 4.515.9%6.29
- Under 1.521.8%4.58
- Under 2.545.9%2.18
- Under 3.568.2%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes53.0%1.89
- No47.0%2.13
- Yes and over 2.541.9%2.39
- Genk win and yes26.5%3.77
- Draw and yes17.0%5.90
- OH Leuven win and yes9.5%10.53
Team goals
- Genk over 0.584.7%1.18
- Genk over 1.556.0%1.78
- Genk over 2.529.1%3.44
- OH Leuven over 0.561.8%1.62
- OH Leuven over 1.525.1%3.99
- OH Leuven over 2.57.4%13.56
- Genk clean sheet38.2%2.62
- OH Leuven clean sheet15.3%6.55
- Genk win to nil31.8%3.15
- OH Leuven win to nil8.9%11.25
Handicap
- Genk −1.534.5%2.90
- Genk −2.516.4%6.10
- OH Leuven +1.565.5%1.53
- OH Leuven +2.583.6%1.20
- OH Leuven −1.56.5%15.49
- Genk +1.593.5%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored125
Favourite won44.8%
Avg chance given to result37.9%
1X2 Brier0.620
Over 2.5 called right52.0%
BTTS called right50.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 21 | 38.3% | 28.6% |
| 40–50% | 67 | 44.9% | 35.8% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 55.0% | 65.2% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 65.2% | 81.8% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 87 of 125 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6264 | 0.6217 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.9% | 38.6% |
| Favourite won | 43.7% | 46.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 87 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Club Brugge KV 0–1 Antwerp65·21·14
- ✗Charleroi 0–0 RAAL La Louvière40·28·31
- ✗Zulte Waregem 1–1 Cercle Brugge47·27·27
- ✗Dender 2–2 KVC Westerlo42·27·31
- ✗KV Mechelen 0–1 Standard Liege49·26·25
- ✗OH Leuven 1–2 St. Truiden38·27·35
- ✓RAAL La Louvière 0–1 Anderlecht29·28·43
- ✗Antwerp 1–2 Dender57·24·19
- ✗Genk 0–1 KV Mechelen51·25·24
- ✓Club Brugge KV 1–0 Charleroi73·17·10
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 125 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.