Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 27). Genk usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Genk had 3 days of rest, RAAL La Louvière 8.1 and had to travel 107 km.
Away travel107 kmRest days3 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Genk53%
Draw25%
RAAL La Louvière22%
Genk51%
Draw25%
RAAL La Louvière23%
Genk53%
Draw25%
RAAL La Louvière22%
Genk45%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière28%
Genk51%
Draw25%
RAAL La Louvière23%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 2.2
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 6
Team strength
Genk
RAAL La Louvière
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
46
AttackIn forecast
15
50
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkRAAL La Louvière
1.45
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.64
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.82
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
91%
Scored inContext
45%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
55%
16.45
ShotsContext
8.82
5.64
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.45
34%
On target shareContext
28%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.82
61%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.44
11.18
Shots allowedContext
10.73
4.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
3.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
71%
Save rateContext
85%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
35%
546
PassesContext
254
476
Accurate passesContext
177
87%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.09
FoulsContext
11.09
13.73
Fouls sufferedContext
11.55
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
70%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
15.10
ShotsContext
8.30
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
31%
On target shareContext
30%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
57%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.63
10.00
Shots allowedContext
10.90
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
2.88
BlocksContext
3.11
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.22
74%
Save rateContext
88%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
34%
517
PassesContext
244
448
Accurate passesContext
167
87%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.30
FoulsContext
10.70
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km323 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
RAAL La Louvière
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel107 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
RAAL La Louvière |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct | 8.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 107 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 323 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
27K. Nkuba
8B. Heynen
24N. Sattlberger
14Y. Sor
38D. Heymans
20K. Karetsas
29Robin Mirisola
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
25D. Lamego
99Y. Okou
4Wagane Faye
8S. Gueulette
5T. Lutonda
23J. Ito
98Owen Maes
11J. Liongola
29O. Mendy
22J. Afriyie
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.40
RAAL La Louvière · Away
0.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Genk | RAAL La Louvière |
|---|---|---|
| Dender | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Charleroi | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 12 of 24 · 1.50 per game | 12 of 24 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.45 | 0.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 0.82 | |
| Match goals | 2.91 | 1.45 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 36% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 27% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 9% | |
| Both teams scored | 91% | 27% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 55% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 55% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Genk | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 1.40 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.64 | 4.09 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.73 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.37 | 7.09 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 18% 2/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 1.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.09 | 1.45 | |
| Match total | 4.91 | 3.09 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 82% 9/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 7/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Genk | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 7.10 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 3.10 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.17league 3.84
Red cards0.00league 0.21
Cards 5+0%league 41%
Fouls21.0league 23.2
Penalties0.00league 0.28
Home wins50%league 41%
GenkNo previous matches with this referee.
RAAL La Louvière1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Aug 25A · St. Truiden1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk11 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
4
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
RAAL La Louvière11 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
2
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 7 · conceded 7
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
