Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Genk
7th · 38 pts · 28 played
WWLWL
First leg2–1
1–0Full time
St. Truiden
3rd · 57 pts · 28 played
WWWLW
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Genk. Genk had 2.7 days of rest, St. Truiden 6.8 and had to travel.
Rest days2.7 · 6.8Matches / 14d3 · 1
Genk50%
Draw25%
St. Truiden25%
Genk44%
Draw27%
St. Truiden29%
Genk50%
Draw25%
St. Truiden25%
Genk42%
Draw26%
St. Truiden32%
Genk49%
Draw26%
St. Truiden25%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 43
Team strength
GenkSt. Truiden
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
46
AttackIn forecast
37
50
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkSt. Truiden
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.64
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
86%
Scored inContext
82%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
15.00
ShotsContext
14.07
5.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.54
37%
On target shareContext
32%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.22
62%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.28
OffsidesContext
2.67
12.14
Shots allowedContext
11.64
4.39
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.07
3.31
BlocksContext
3.50
3.04
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
68%
Save rateContext
74%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
538
PassesContext
450
464
Accurate passesContext
370
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.95
9.93
FoulsContext
11.21
12.54
Fouls sufferedContext
11.18
1.36
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.10
ShotsContext
14.50
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
40%
On target shareContext
35%
10.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
73%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.70
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.50
BlocksContext
4.00
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
72%
Save rateContext
78%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
482
PassesContext
483
406
Accurate passesContext
397
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.93
Team ratingContext
7.07
9.40
FoulsContext
9.40
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km164 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
St. Truiden
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 164 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
44J. Kongolo
77Z. El Ouahdi
38D. Heymans
8B. Heynen
21I. Bangoura
10J. Ito
29Robin Mirisola
20K. Karetsas
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
4L. Mbe Soh
5S. Taniguchi
60R. Vanwesemael
13R. Ito
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
42Keisuke Goto
7A. Muja
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
1.36points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-5
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.43
St. Truiden · Away
1.86points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-4
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 1.07
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Genk | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Gent | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–3 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| KV Mechelen | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Anderlecht | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Dender | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 3–5 HL 1–2 A | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Charleroi | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | W 4–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Antwerp | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 35 of 81 · 1.30 per game | 57 of 81 · 2.11 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Genk wins2 draws0 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 28 Sep 2025St. Truiden1–2Genk
- 28 Jan 2024St. Truiden1–1Genk
- 24 Sep 2023Genk3–3St. Truiden
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.93 | 2.75 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 57% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 57% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 18% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Genk | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.80 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 5.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.48 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 10.07 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 16/27 | 70% 19/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 13/27 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 10/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.39 | 1.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.39 | 2.46 | |
| Match total | 3.78 | 4.28 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 15/28 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 11/28 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Genk | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 9.80 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.70 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.79league 3.83
Red cards0.30league 0.19
Cards 5+35%league 39%
Fouls24.6league 22.7
Penalties0.33league 0.32
Home wins44%league 41%
Genk7 with this referee
Record1-3-3
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L22 Feb 26H · Standard Liege0–30
- L17 Jan 26A · Zulte Waregem1–22
- D14 Sep 25A · Anderlecht1–13
- W15 Aug 25A · OH Leuven2–12
- D28 Jan 24A · St. Truiden1–15
St. Truiden4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L13 Dec 25A · Anderlecht1–25
- L21 Sep 25A · Club Brugge KV0–22
- D28 Jan 24H · Genk1–12
- D24 Sep 23A · Genk3–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk28 games · scored 40 · conceded 42
8
10
0-15
7
4
16-30
3
9
31-45
7
7
46-60
6
3
61-75
9
9
76-90
St. Truiden28 games · scored 46 · conceded 31
4
2
0-15
9
7
16-30
9
5
31-45
4
6
46-60
6
7
61-75
14
4
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
