Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genk
7th · 38 pts · 28 played
WWLWL
First leg2–1
1–0Full time
St. Truiden
3rd · 57 pts · 28 played
WWWLW
Genk49.8%fair odds 2.01
Draw25.0%fair odds 4.00
St. Truiden25.2%fair odds 3.97
Expected goals1.72 – 1.16total 2.88
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
St. Truiden
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genk ↓ · St. Truiden → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genk goals, columns St. Truiden goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.47
- 2–19.6%10.39
- 1–09.1%11.04
- 2–08.3%12.07
- 1–26.5%15.35
- 0–06.2%16.08
- 0–15.9%16.84
- 2–25.6%17.89
- 3–15.5%18.16
- 3–04.7%21.10
Winning margin
11.9%
Genk by 3+
fair 8.38
15.4%
Genk by 2
fair 6.51
22.5%
Genk by 1
fair 4.45
25.0%
Draw
fair 4.00
15.0%
St. Truiden by 1
fair 6.66
7.0%
St. Truiden by 2
fair 14.21
3.2%
St. Truiden by 3+
fair 31.63
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Genk goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
10%4+
St. Truiden goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 49.8% | 49.3% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 25.0% | 25.5% | -0.5 pp |
| St. Truiden win | 25.2% | 25.2% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 52.8% | +2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.0% | 55.4% | +1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Genk | 1.72 | 1.66 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals St. Truiden | 1.16 | 1.13 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genk win49.8%2.01
- Draw25.0%4.00
- St. Truiden win25.2%3.97
- Double chance Genk or draw74.8%1.34
- Double chance Genk or St. Truiden75.0%1.33
- Double chance St. Truiden or draw50.2%1.99
- Draw no bet Genk66.4%1.51
- Draw no bet St. Truiden33.6%2.97
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.578.8%1.27
- Over 2.554.9%1.82
- Over 3.532.6%3.07
- Over 4.516.5%6.07
- Under 1.521.2%4.71
- Under 2.545.1%2.22
- Under 3.567.4%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes57.0%1.76
- No43.0%2.32
- Yes and over 2.545.1%2.21
- Genk win and yes24.7%4.05
- Draw and yes18.8%5.32
- St. Truiden win and yes13.5%7.43
Team goals
- Genk over 0.582.0%1.22
- Genk over 1.551.2%1.95
- Genk over 2.524.7%4.05
- St. Truiden over 0.568.7%1.46
- St. Truiden over 1.532.4%3.09
- St. Truiden over 2.511.2%8.90
- Genk clean sheet31.3%3.20
- St. Truiden clean sheet18.0%5.57
- Genk win to nil25.1%3.99
- St. Truiden win to nil11.8%8.51
Handicap
- Genk −1.527.3%3.66
- Genk −2.511.9%8.38
- St. Truiden +1.572.7%1.38
- St. Truiden +2.588.1%1.14
- St. Truiden −1.510.2%9.80
- Genk +1.589.8%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored228
Favourite won44.3%
Avg chance given to result37.6%
1X2 Brier0.629
Over 2.5 called right54.4%
BTTS called right51.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 42 | 38.0% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 102 | 44.7% | 36.3% |
| 50–60% | 57 | 54.5% | 56.1% |
| 60–70% | 23 | 64.6% | 69.6% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 171 of 228 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6427 | 0.6302 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.1% | 38.0% |
| Favourite won | 42.7% | 43.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 171 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓KVC Westerlo 1–2 Club Brugge KV24·25·51
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Dender67·21·12
- ✗Charleroi 0–2 OH Leuven45·25·30
- ✓Gent 2–0 Zulte Waregem50·25·24
- ✓St. Truiden 2–1 Cercle Brugge54·25·21
- ✗Zulte Waregem 0–1 Standard Liege41·27·32
- ✓Gent 3–1 KV Mechelen41·27·32
- ✗Club Brugge KV 2–2 Anderlecht61·22·18
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–1 Genk47·26·27
- ✗Dender 2–2 Charleroi41·27·32
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 228 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.