Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 36). Genk had 3.7 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 7.8 and had to travel 82 km.
Away travel82 kmRest days3.7 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Genk30%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise44%
Genk30%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise43%
Genk30%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise44%
Genk24%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise51%
Genk30%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise43%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 28
Team strength
Genk
Union St. Gilloise
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
46
AttackIn forecast
62
50
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkUnion St. Gilloise
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.14
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.43
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
2.39
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.55
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
86%
Scored inContext
86%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
71%
15.71
ShotsContext
16.29
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.14
32%
On target shareContext
44%
9.57
Shots in the boxContext
12.50
60%
Box shareContext
74%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.33
10.71
Shots allowedContext
8.14
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.00
BlocksContext
1.57
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
64%
Save rateContext
78%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
543
PassesContext
470
481
Accurate passesContext
390
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.08
9.86
FoulsContext
11.86
13.57
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
2.45
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
90%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.00
ShotsContext
17.80
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.30
35%
On target shareContext
41%
9.13
Shots in the boxContext
13.22
61%
Box shareContext
72%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.67
OffsidesContext
3.67
10.90
Shots allowedContext
8.30
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
2.70
BlocksContext
1.60
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
69%
Save rateContext
72%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
537
PassesContext
475
472
Accurate passesContext
393
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.09
10.20
FoulsContext
12.30
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km164 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union St. Gilloise
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel82 km39 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
Union St. Gilloise |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 17 Sep | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 82 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 164 km | 39 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.3 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
24N. Sattlberger
10J. Ito
17P. Hrošovský
7J. Steuckers
99J. Erabi
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
48F. Leysen
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
22O. Niang
4M. Rasmussen
8A. Zorgane
25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
12P. David
13K. Rodríguez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Union St. Gilloise · Away
2.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Genk | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 A | W 5–0 H |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game | 10 of 12 · 2.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Genk wins0 draws1 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 3 Feb 2024Genk0–1Union St. Gilloise
- 16 Sep 2023Union St. Gilloise0–2Genk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 2.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 0.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.57 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 29% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 71% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Genk | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 2.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 0.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.57 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 29% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 71% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.43 | 6.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.86 | 3.71 | |
| Match total | 9.29 | 9.85 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.15 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Genk | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 10.60 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.40 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.74
Red cards0.25league 0.24
Cards 5+54%league 41%
Fouls23.3league 23.1
Penalties0.11league 0.36
Home wins46%league 43%
Genk2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L10 Aug 25A · Standard Liege1–22
- L23 Dec 23A · Anderlecht1–24
Union St. Gilloise2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Aug 25A · RAAL La Louvière0–03
- W18 Feb 24A · Kortrijk3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk7 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Union St. Gilloise7 games · scored 15 · conceded 3
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 20 · conceded 7
4
0-15
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
