Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were slight favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 32). Genoa had 7.1 days of rest, Bologna 2.8 and had to travel 190 km.
Away travel190 kmRest days7.1 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Genoa31%
Draw28%
Bologna42%
Genoa31%
Draw27%
Bologna42%
Genoa30%
Draw28%
Bologna42%
Genoa25%
Draw26%
Bologna49%
Genoa32%
Draw26%
Bologna42%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 70
Team strength
Genoa
Bologna
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
23
AttackIn forecast
35
44
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaBologna
1.05
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
67%
Scored inContext
76%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.62
ShotsContext
12.90
3.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.15
36%
On target shareContext
31%
6.85
Shots in the boxContext
8.45
62%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.29
Shots allowedContext
10.62
4.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
5.06
BlocksContext
3.18
3.26
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
68%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
358
PassesContext
426
283
Accurate passesContext
352
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.52
FoulsContext
13.67
15.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.38
2.05
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.20
ShotsContext
14.30
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
41%
On target shareContext
31%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
9.56
67%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.71
16.60
Shots allowedContext
11.20
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
6.10
BlocksContext
3.29
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
74%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
352
PassesContext
439
282
Accurate passesContext
364
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.10
FoulsContext
12.90
16.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km236 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bologna
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel190 km217 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 190 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 236 km | 217 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 2 / 3 / 7 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
16J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
34S. Otoa
27A. Marcandalli
3Aarón Martín
77M. Ellertsson
32M. Frendrup
9Vítinha
15B. Norton-Cuffy
29L. Colombo
21J. Ekhator
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
22C. Lykogiannis
14T. Heggem
16N. Casale
20N. Zortea
19L. Ferguson
8R. Freuler
30B. Domínguez
21J. Odgaard
11J. Rowe
17C. Immobile
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Bologna-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
0.91points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-5
- Scored
- 0.82
- Conceded
- 1.18
Bologna · Away
1.45points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-3
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.27
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Cagliari | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A | W 2–0 A |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Pisa | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Inter | L 1–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Udinese | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Verona | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Cremonese | L 0–2 H | L 1–3 H |
| Torino | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Napoli | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Lazio | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Como | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Juventus | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Lecce | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 20 of 60 · 1.00 per game | 27 of 60 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Genoa wins3 draws2 Bologna wins
Goals per game1.57 – 1.29
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets14% · 14%
- 20 Sep 2025Bologna2–1Genoa
- 24 May 2025Bologna1–3Genoa
- 19 Oct 2024Genoa2–2Bologna
- 24 May 2024Genoa2–0Bologna
- 5 Jan 2024Bologna1–1Genoa
- 21 May 2022Genoa0–1Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.05 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.57 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 48% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 52% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 24% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Genoa | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.94 | 4.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.12 | 4.05 | |
| Match total | 9.06 | 8.86 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 10/17 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 8/17 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 3/17 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 4.62 | 4.52 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 18/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 9/21 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Genoa | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.20 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 9.11 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.50 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.03league 3.81
Red cards0.16league 0.16
Cards 5+64%league 36%
Fouls24.9league 25.6
Penalties0.19league 0.30
Home wins36%league 37%
Genoa4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W8 Dec 25A · Udinese2–10
- W14 Mar 25H · Lecce2–13
- L30 Apr 22A · Sampdoria0–11
- L17 Jan 22A · Fiorentina0–63
Bologna7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.9
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D28 Apr 25A · Udinese0–02
- W22 Apr 24A · AS Roma3–12
- W18 Feb 24A · Lazio2–13
- L12 Nov 23A · Fiorentina1–22
- W1 Oct 23H · Empoli3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa21 games · scored 22 · conceded 29
4
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
6
61-75
6
4
76-90
Bologna21 games · scored 30 · conceded 24
3
0-15
5
1
16-30
7
6
31-45
8
4
46-60
4
7
61-75
6
3
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
