Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genoa were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Genoa had 3.9 days of rest, Cagliari 4 and had to travel 576 km.
Away travel576 kmRest days3.9 · 4Matches / 14d3 · 2
Genoa44%
Draw28%
Cagliari28%
Genoa45%
Draw27%
Cagliari28%
Genoa44%
Draw28%
Cagliari28%
Genoa37%
Draw29%
Cagliari34%
Genoa45%
Draw27%
Cagliari28%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 44
Team strength
Genoa
Cagliari
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
23
AttackIn forecast
31
44
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaCagliari
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
68%
Scored inContext
68%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
10.53
ShotsContext
10.16
3.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
35%
On target shareContext
34%
6.83
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
63%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.29
13.16
Shots allowedContext
13.11
5.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.11
4.94
BlocksContext
3.76
3.35
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.94
66%
Save rateContext
74%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
356
PassesContext
377
281
Accurate passesContext
306
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.16
FoulsContext
14.47
14.95
Fouls sufferedContext
14.68
2.05
Yellow cardsContext
2.42
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
90%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.50
ShotsContext
11.00
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
41%
On target shareContext
36%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.89
71%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.33
15.70
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
5.30
BlocksContext
3.22
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
69%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
338
PassesContext
387
267
Accurate passesContext
316
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.90
FoulsContext
15.10
16.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,043 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Cagliari
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel576 km1,321 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Jan | 4Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 576 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,043 km | 1,321 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
3Aarón Martín
77M. Ellertsson
32M. Frendrup
17R. Malinovskyi
15B. Norton-Cuffy
29L. Colombo
9Vítinha
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
15J. Rodríguez
6S. Luperto
2M. Palestra
4L. Mazzitelli
16M. Prati
8M. Adopo
94S. Esposito
9S. Kılıçsoy
77Zito Luvumbo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cagliari+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
0.70points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-5
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.30
Cagliari · Away
1.00points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-4
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Pisa | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Inter | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Udinese | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Verona | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Cremonese | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Torino | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Napoli | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lazio | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Bologna | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Como | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Juventus | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 15 of 54 · 0.83 per game | 18 of 54 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Genoa wins3 draws1 Cagliari wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.43
Over 2.571%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets29% · 0%
- 22 Nov 2025Cagliari3–3Genoa
- 7 Mar 2025Cagliari1–1Genoa
- 24 Nov 2024Genoa2–2Cagliari
- 29 Apr 2024Genoa3–0Cagliari
- 5 Nov 2023Cagliari2–1Genoa
- 24 Apr 2022Genoa1–0Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.53 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.53 | 2.53 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 47% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 58% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 32% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Genoa | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.27 | 4.47 | |
| Match total | 9.27 | 8.35 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 9/15 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 3/15 | 18% 3/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.16 | 2.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.32 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.48 | 4.42 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 84% 16/19 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 7/19 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Genoa | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.70 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 8.44 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.20 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 3.88
Red cards0.11league 0.18
Cards 5+39%league 38%
Fouls25.8league 25.7
Penalties0.30league 0.31
Home wins36%league 37%
Genoa3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D22 Nov 25A · Cagliari3–33
- L5 Oct 25A · Napoli1–23
- L21 Dec 24H · Napoli1–22
Cagliari5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D22 Nov 25H · Genoa3–34
- L23 May 25A · Napoli0–21
- D6 Apr 25A · Empoli0–04
- L15 Sep 24H · Napoli0–41
- L27 Sep 23H · AC Milan1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa19 games · scored 19 · conceded 29
3
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
6
61-75
5
4
76-90
Cagliari19 games · scored 21 · conceded 27
4
0-15
2
5
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
7
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
