Genoa vs Inter – 14 Dec 2025

Serie A Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 14 · 17:00 Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova

Genoa 16th · 14 pts · 14 played WDDWW

1–2Full time

Inter 3rd · 30 pts · 14 played WWLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Inter were clear favourites.

Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 32). Genoa had 6 days of rest, Inter 8 and had to travel 119 km.

Away travel119 kmRest days6 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Genoa14%

Draw21%

Inter65%

Expected goals 0.81 – 2.02

Genoa14%

Draw21%

Inter65%

Expected goals 0.87 – 2.07

Genoa14%

Draw22%

Inter64%

Expected goals 0.80 – 1.95

Genoa10%

Draw18%

Inter72%

Expected goals 0.72 – 2.26

Genoa14%

Draw20%

Inter66%

Expected goals 0.87 – 2.14

Over 2.5 54% Both score 49% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Genova)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 73

Team strength

Genoa

Inter

32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

23 AttackIn forecast 91

44 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genoa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Inter

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genoa

Inter

1.07 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.29

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.93

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.47

64% Scored inContext 93%

14% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.50 ShotsContext 17.14

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.43

35% On target shareContext 32%

7.14 Shots in the boxContext 11.86

61% Box shareContext 71%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.17

11.29 Shots allowedContext 9.29

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.46

4.00 BlocksContext 3.18

2.92 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.91

63% Save rateContext 84%

49% PossessionIn forecast 59%

365 PassesContext 520

288 Accurate passesContext 453

79% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.77 Team ratingContext 7.07

14.29 FoulsContext 13.86

14.57 Fouls sufferedContext 11.43

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 1.36

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

70% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.90 ShotsContext 15.90

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

33% On target shareContext 33%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.90

62% Box shareContext 69%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.63 OffsidesContext 1.78

11.10 Shots allowedContext 9.70

4.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

3.57 BlocksContext 2.88

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

61% Save rateContext 83%

49% PossessionIn forecast 58%

367 PassesContext 531

294 Accurate passesContext 461

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.77 Team ratingContext 7.02

14.10 FoulsContext 11.80

15.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genoa

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km767 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Inter

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel119 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genoa	Inter
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Dec	8Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	119 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	767 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	14.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genoa Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1N. Leali(G)

22J. Vásquez 34S. Otoa 27A. Marcandalli

3Aarón Martín 77M. Ellertsson 17R. Malinovskyi 32M. Frendrup 15B. Norton-Cuffy

29L. Colombo 9Vítinha

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Inter Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1Y. Sommer(G)

95A. Bastoni 25M. Akanji 31Y. Bisseck

30Carlos Augusto 8P. Sučić 7P. Zieliński 23N. Barella 11L. de Lima

94F. Esposito 10L. Martínez

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genoa Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Inter Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Genoa-0.5 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
Inter+1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Genoa · Home 0.86points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-3
Scored: 0.57
Conceded: 1.29

Inter · Away 2.00points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 4-0-2
Scored: 1.83
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 11 this season

Opponent	Genoa	Inter
Udinese	W 2–1 A	L 1–2 H
Verona	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 A
Cagliari	D 3–3 A	W 2–0 A
Fiorentina	D 2–2 H	W 3–0 H
Sassuolo	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
Cremonese	L 0–2 H	W 4–1 H
Torino	L 1–2 A	W 5–0 H
Napoli	L 1–2 A	L 1–3 A
Lazio	L 0–3 H	W 2–0 H
Como	D 1–1 A	W 4–0 H
Juventus	L 0–1 H	L 3–4 A
Points	12 of 33 · 1.09 per game	24 of 33 · 2.18 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Genoa wins3 draws3 Inter wins

Goals per game0.67 – 1.67 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 50%

22 Feb 2025Inter1–0Genoa
17 Aug 2024Genoa2–2Inter
4 Mar 2024Inter2–1Genoa
29 Dec 2023Genoa1–1Inter
25 Feb 2022Genoa0–0Inter
21 Aug 2021Inter4–0Genoa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genoa	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	1.07	2.29
Conceded per game	1.50	0.93
Match goals	2.57	3.21	2.82
Over 1.5	79%	86%
Over 2.5	64%	64%	54%
Over 3.5	14%	36%
Both teams scored	64%	43%	49%
Clean sheets	14%	50%
Failed to score	36%	7%
Games	14	14

	Genoa	Inter	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	2.10
Conceded per game	1.70	0.60
Match goals	3.00	2.70	2.82
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	30%	49%
Clean sheets	10%	60%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genoa	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	3.40	7.00
Corners conceded	5.30	3.14
Match total	8.70	10.14	8.85
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	79% 11/14
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	64% 9/14
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	50% 7/14
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.36
Opponent cards	2.36	1.71
Match total	4.86	3.07	3.99
Over 3.5	86% 12/14	21% 3/14
Over 4.5	50% 7/14	14% 2/14

	Genoa	Inter	League
Corners
Corners won	3.86	6.30
Corners conceded	4.86	3.20
Match total	8.72	9.50	8.85
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	14% 1/7	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.40
Opponent cards	2.30	1.70
Match total	4.70	3.10	3.99
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 73 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.34league 3.85

Red cards0.21league 0.16

Cards 5+29%league 37%

Fouls24.7league 25.9

Penalties0.22league 0.32

Home wins25%league 40%

Genoa6 with this referee

Record1-4-1 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

W27 Jan 25H · Monza2–00
D19 Oct 24H · Bologna2–22
D29 Dec 23H · Inter1–12
D22 Jan 22H · Udinese0–04
L10 Dec 21H · Sampdoria1–32

Inter12 with this referee

Record4-5-3 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.1 Pens for · against2 · 1

W2 Nov 25A · Verona2–11
D5 Apr 25A · Parma2–23
D1 Mar 25A · Napoli1–10
L6 Feb 25A · Fiorentina0–30
W28 Dec 24A · Cagliari3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.