Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were slight favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 34). Absences weigh more on Lazio. Genoa had 9.2 days of rest, Lazio 8.3 and had to travel 402 km.
Away travel402 kmRest days9.2 · 8.3Matches / 14d2 · 1
Genoa31%
Draw28%
Lazio41%
Genoa31%
Draw27%
Lazio42%
Genoa30%
Draw28%
Lazio42%
Genoa25%
Draw27%
Lazio48%
Genoa32%
Draw27%
Lazio41%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGiovanni Ayroldi
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 44
Team strength
Genoa
Lazio
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
23
AttackIn forecast
53
44
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaLazio
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.43
50%
Scored inContext
25%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
8.00
ShotsContext
12.00
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
41%
On target shareContext
25%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.25
59%
Box shareContext
65%
6%
ConversionContext
8%
—
OffsidesContext
1.00
11.75
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
4.75
BlocksContext
1.75
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
69%
Save rateContext
79%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
359
PassesContext
489
273
Accurate passesContext
427
76%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.75
FoulsContext
11.00
13.25
Fouls sufferedContext
17.50
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
60%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
7.70
ShotsContext
13.70
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
40%
On target shareContext
30%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
67%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.40
Shots allowedContext
10.10
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.90
BlocksContext
2.00
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
69%
Save rateContext
71%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
355
PassesContext
498
277
Accurate passesContext
435
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.96
14.80
FoulsContext
10.70
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.40
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km693 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lazio
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel402 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.2Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 8.3Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 402 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 693 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
3Aarón Martín
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
15B. Norton-Cuffy
32M. Frendrup
73P. Masini
9Vítinha
17R. Malinovskyi
77M. Ellertsson
29L. Colombo
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
3L. Pellegrini
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
26T. Bašić
32D. Cataldi
10M. Zaccagni
19B. Dia
22M. Cancellieri
11V. Castellanos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.9 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Lazio-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Lazio · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Como | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Genoa wins0 draws5 Lazio wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.17
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 23 Apr 2025Genoa0–2Lazio
- 27 Oct 2024Lazio3–0Genoa
- 19 Apr 2024Genoa0–1Lazio
- 27 Aug 2023Lazio0–1Genoa
- 10 Apr 2022Genoa1–4Lazio
- 17 Dec 2021Lazio3–1Genoa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 25% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Genoa | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 25% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.33 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 9.33 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 5.25 | 4.25 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Genoa | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.43 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.57 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.55 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 6.00 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giovanni Ayroldi Italy · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.52league 3.55
Red cards0.30league 0.14
Cards 5+77%league 35%
Fouls27.8league 25.6
Penalties0.16league 0.24
Home wins39%league 41%
Genoa4 with this referee
Record0-0-4
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L23 Apr 25H · Lazio0–24
- L1 Sep 24H · Verona0–22
- L4 Mar 24A · Inter1–22
- L19 Aug 23H · Fiorentina1–42
Lazio7 with this referee
Record4-3-0
Cards · opp.2.6 · 4.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W23 Apr 25A · Genoa2–02
- W4 Nov 24H · Cagliari2–13
- W6 Oct 24H · Empoli2–12
- D9 Dec 23A · Verona1–14
- D6 Feb 23A · Verona1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa4 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Lazio4 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
6
61-75
2
4
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
