Genoa vs Lecce – 31 Jan 2027

Serie A Gameweek 22 Sun, Jan 31 · 17:30 Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova

Genoa 17th · 4 pts · 7 played LDLWL

VS— Compare

Lecce 12th · 9 pts · 7 played LWLLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel881 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Genoa—%

Draw—%

Lecce—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Genova)

Forecast from 16 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Genoa

Lecce

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

23 AttackIn forecast 36

44 DefenceIn forecast 30

24 Form indexContext 35

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Genoa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lecce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Genoa

Lecce

0.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.71

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.98

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

57% Scored inContext 57%

0% Clean sheetsContext 29%

11.14 ShotsContext 11.14

2.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.71

26% On target shareContext 42%

7.57 Shots in the boxContext 7.14

68% Box shareContext 64%

6% ConversionContext 12%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.60

15.00 Shots allowedContext 14.86

4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.43

6.17 BlocksContext 2.83

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.43

61% Save rateContext 69%

45% PossessionIn forecast 40%

380 PassesContext 346

306 Accurate passesContext 271

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.56 Team ratingContext 6.78

9.43 FoulsContext 12.86

11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 9.14

2.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

50% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.60 ShotsContext 10.40

2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

25% On target shareContext 43%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

68% Box shareContext 68%

6% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.50

13.40 Shots allowedContext 13.80

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

5.38 BlocksContext 2.67

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

60% Save rateContext 69%

48% PossessionIn forecast 37%

395 PassesContext 312

322 Accurate passesContext 239

82% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.78

9.40 FoulsContext 12.10

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Genoa LDLWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km248 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

L17 OctA · AS Roma0–20.5 xPts
W10 OctH · Fiorentina2–11.3 xPts
L20 SepA · Parma1–21.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Frosinone1–11.6 xPts
L4 SepH · Como1–41.0 xPts

Lecce LWLLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel881 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 35 · 6 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W18 OctA · Udinese3–00.9 xPts
L11 OctH · Bologna1–21.1 xPts
L20 SepA · AC Milan0–30.5 xPts
W13 SepH · Monza3–21.7 xPts
L7 SepA · Cagliari0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Genoa	Lecce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Serie A 2026-2027, 24 Jan	7Serie A 2026-2027, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	881 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	248 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Genoa Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs AS Roma (A) 0–2, 17 Oct

1J. Bijlow(G)

22J. Vásquez 5L. Østigård 27A. Marcandalli

31D. Puczka 32M. Frendrup 71S. Wiafe 77M. Ellertsson

92S. El Shaarawy 10J. Messias

18M. Osmajić

Lecce Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Udinese (A) 3–0, 18 Oct

30W. Falcone(G)

25A. Gallo 44Tiago Gabriel 4E. Gaspar 17Danilo Veiga

14Y. Maleh 79Oumar Ngom 29L. Coulibaly

7A. Fatah 69W. Geubbels 11K. N’Dri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Genoa Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Lecce Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Genoa · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Lecce · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Genoa	Lecce
AS Roma	L 0–2 A	L 0–4 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Genoa wins2 draws2 Lecce wins

Goals per game0.67 – 0.67 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 67%

24 May 2026Lecce1–0Genoa
23 Aug 2025Genoa0–0Lecce
14 Mar 2025Genoa2–1Lecce
5 Jan 2025Lecce0–0Genoa
28 Jan 2024Genoa2–1Lecce
22 Sep 2023Lecce1–0Genoa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Genoa	Lecce
Scored per game	0.71	1.29
Conceded per game	1.86	1.71
Match goals	2.57	3.00
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	43%	71%
Over 3.5	14%	29%
Both teams scored	57%	29%
Clean sheets	0%	29%
Failed to score	43%	43%
Games	7	7

	Genoa	Lecce
Scored per game	0.60	1.30
Conceded per game	1.60	1.50
Match goals	2.20	2.80
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	60%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	30%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Genoa	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.43	4.57
Corners conceded	4.57	3.29
Match total	9.00	7.86	9.38
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	14% 1/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.86
Opponent cards	1.86	0.86
Match total	4.86	2.72	3.43
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	14% 1/7

	Genoa	Lecce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	4.20
Corners conceded	4.10	3.80
Match total	8.50	8.00	9.38
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.00
Opponent cards	1.80	0.80
Match total	4.10	2.80	3.43
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.