Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were slight favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genoa. Genoa had 7.9 days of rest, Napoli 7 and had to travel 588 km.
Away travel588 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Genoa29%
Draw28%
Napoli44%
Genoa23%
Draw25%
Napoli51%
Genoa26%
Draw28%
Napoli46%
Genoa23%
Draw26%
Napoli51%
Genoa30%
Draw27%
Napoli44%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 105
Team strength
Genoa
Napoli
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
61
23
AttackIn forecast
61
44
DefenceIn forecast
70
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaNapoli
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
70%
Scored inContext
74%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
10.74
ShotsContext
12.87
3.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.73
36%
On target shareContext
35%
6.82
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
62%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.06
OffsidesContext
1.64
13.30
Shots allowedContext
10.87
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
5.10
BlocksContext
3.32
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
67%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
358
PassesContext
530
284
Accurate passesContext
458
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.48
FoulsContext
12.00
14.96
Fouls sufferedContext
13.17
2.09
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.80
ShotsContext
13.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
41%
On target shareContext
31%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
62%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.43
16.90
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
6.50
BlocksContext
3.20
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
75%
Save rateContext
63%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
344
PassesContext
571
275
Accurate passesContext
503
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.20
FoulsContext
12.10
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km804 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Napoli
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel588 km1,423 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Jan | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 588 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 804 km | 1,423 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
16J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
3Aarón Martín
77M. Ellertsson
32M. Frendrup
17R. Malinovskyi
15B. Norton-Cuffy
29L. Colombo
9Vítinha
Napoli
Confirmed XI
1A. Meret(G)
5Juan Jesus
4A. Buongiorno
13A. Rrahmani
37L. Spinazzola
8S. McTominay
68S. Lobotka
3Miguel Gutiérrez
20E. Elmas
26A. Vergara
19R. Højlund
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Napoli
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+2.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Napoli-2.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
1.08points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Napoli · Away
1.58points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-5
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H | W 2–0 A |
| Bologna | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Cagliari | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Pisa | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Inter | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Udinese | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Verona | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Cremonese | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Torino | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Como | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Juventus | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Lecce | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 23 of 66 · 1.05 per game | 43 of 66 · 1.95 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Genoa wins3 draws4 Napoli wins
Goals per game1.14 – 2.00
Over 2.586%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets0% · 14%
- 5 Oct 2025Napoli2–1Genoa
- 11 May 2025Napoli2–2Genoa
- 21 Dec 2024Genoa1–2Napoli
- 17 Feb 2024Napoli1–1Genoa
- 16 Sep 2023Genoa2–2Napoli
- 15 May 2022Napoli3–0Genoa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 2.65 | 2.35 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 48% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 43% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 26% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Genoa | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.30 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.05 | 4.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.84 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 7.71 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 10/19 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 8/19 | 19% 4/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 16% 3/19 | 19% 4/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 1.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.65 | 3.39 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 87% 20/23 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 11/23 | 13% 3/23 | |
| Genoa | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.60 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.70 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.70 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 105 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.52league 3.81
Red cards0.29league 0.16
Cards 5+50%league 36%
Fouls25.1league 25.6
Penalties0.15league 0.31
Home wins35%league 38%
Genoa4 with this referee
Record1-3-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D23 Aug 25H · Lecce0–02
- D2 Mar 25H · Empoli1–11
- D15 Dec 23H · Juventus1–12
- W27 Oct 23H · Salernitana1–03
Napoli9 with this referee
Record5-3-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W4 Jan 26A · Lazio2–02
- W30 Nov 25A · AS Roma1–03
- W3 May 25A · Lecce1–00
- D7 Apr 25A · Bologna1–13
- D15 Feb 25A · Lazio2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa23 games · scored 27 · conceded 34
4
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
7
46-60
7
7
61-75
8
5
76-90
Napoli23 games · scored 33 · conceded 21
7
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
3
31-45
7
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
4
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
