Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genoa were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Genoa. Genoa had 5.8 days of rest, Sassuolo 7.9 and had to travel 138 km.
Away travel138 kmRest days5.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Genoa48%
Draw28%
Sassuolo23%
Genoa45%
Draw27%
Sassuolo29%
Genoa48%
Draw29%
Sassuolo24%
Genoa42%
Draw30%
Sassuolo29%
Genoa50%
Draw26%
Sassuolo24%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAntonio Rapuano
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 57
Team strength
Genoa
Sassuolo
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
23
AttackIn forecast
41
44
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaSassuolo
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.23
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
65%
Scored inContext
68%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
11.32
ShotsContext
10.23
3.84
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.68
34%
On target shareContext
36%
7.13
Shots in the boxContext
6.77
61%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.82
OffsidesContext
2.15
12.71
Shots allowedContext
14.10
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.94
4.54
BlocksContext
3.48
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.79
68%
Save rateContext
73%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
373
PassesContext
384
300
Accurate passesContext
316
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.45
FoulsContext
11.48
14.65
Fouls sufferedContext
12.71
1.77
Yellow cardsContext
2.26
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.80
ShotsContext
9.70
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
31%
On target shareContext
38%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
59%
Box shareContext
75%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.50
Shots allowedContext
14.90
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.60
BlocksContext
4.30
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
73%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
404
PassesContext
368
336
Accurate passesContext
304
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.20
FoulsContext
9.80
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km248 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sassuolo
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel138 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Apr | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 138 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 248 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
16J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
77M. Ellertsson
17R. Malinovskyi
32M. Frendrup
20S. Sabelli
9Vítinha
8T. Baldanzi
29L. Colombo
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
42K. Thorstvedt
18N. Matić
90I. Koné
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sassuolo-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
1.19points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-7
- Scored
- 1.19
- Conceded
- 1.31
Sassuolo · Away
1.27points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-6
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.27
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Udinese | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Verona | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| AS Roma | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Inter | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Torino | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Napoli | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Lazio | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Bologna | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Pisa | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Como | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 30 of 90 · 1.00 per game | 42 of 90 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Genoa wins2 draws0 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.20
Over 2.580%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 3 Nov 2025Sassuolo1–2Genoa
- 12 May 2024Genoa2–1Sassuolo
- 22 Dec 2023Sassuolo1–2Genoa
- 6 Jan 2022Sassuolo1–1Genoa
- 17 Oct 2021Genoa2–2Sassuolo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 1.23 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 2.55 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 55% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 52% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 32% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Genoa | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 3.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.61 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 8.35 | 8.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 14/27 | 55% 17/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 37% 10/27 | 39% 12/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 19% 5/27 | 23% 7/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.84 | 2.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.61 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 4.45 | 4.20 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 24/31 | 61% 19/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 14/31 | 35% 11/31 | |
| Genoa | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.40 | 8.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.00 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Rapuano Italy · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.44league 3.71
Red cards0.33league 0.19
Cards 5+47%league 35%
Fouls25.4league 25.0
Penalties0.26league 0.30
Home wins49%league 40%
Genoa4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L29 Mar 25A · Juventus0–12
- W28 Dec 24A · Empoli2–12
- D7 Nov 24H · Como1–14
- L22 Sep 23A · Lecce0–13
Sassuolo5 with this referee
Record1-0-4
Cards · opp.2.4 · 0.6
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W16 Apr 23H · Juventus1–00
- L29 Oct 22A · Napoli0–43
- L15 Aug 22A · Juventus0–33
- L30 Apr 22A · Napoli1–63
- L2 Apr 22A · Lazio1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa31 games · scored 36 · conceded 44
5
6
0-15
4
7
16-30
5
7
31-45
3
8
46-60
8
9
61-75
11
7
76-90
Sassuolo30 games · scored 37 · conceded 39
7
9
0-15
3
7
16-30
4
3
31-45
8
8
46-60
10
4
61-75
5
8
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Sassuolo9 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
