Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genoa were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Genoa. Genoa had 6.9 days of rest, Torino 6.8 and had to travel 124 km.
Away travel124 kmRest days6.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Genoa46%
Draw27%
Torino27%
Genoa43%
Draw27%
Torino30%
Genoa45%
Draw27%
Torino28%
Genoa39%
Draw28%
Torino34%
Genoa47%
Draw25%
Torino28%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 81
Team strength
Genoa
Torino
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
23
AttackIn forecast
39
44
DefenceIn forecast
47
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTorino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaTorino
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.76
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
68%
Scored inContext
68%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
11.12
ShotsContext
11.64
3.96
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.16
36%
On target shareContext
36%
7.04
Shots in the boxContext
7.64
61%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.95
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.44
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.16
4.95
BlocksContext
3.76
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
69%
Save rateContext
61%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
363
PassesContext
363
290
Accurate passesContext
288
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.48
FoulsContext
13.92
14.64
Fouls sufferedContext
10.56
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.20
ShotsContext
11.60
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
36%
On target shareContext
35%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
62%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.33
16.00
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
5.70
BlocksContext
3.80
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
75%
Save rateContext
61%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
368
PassesContext
378
301
Accurate passesContext
297
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.70
FoulsContext
14.30
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km235 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Torino
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel124 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Torino |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 124 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 235 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
16J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
15B. Norton-Cuffy
17R. Malinovskyi
32M. Frendrup
8T. Baldanzi
77M. Ellertsson
18C. Ekuban
29L. Colombo
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
77E. Ebosse
13G. Maripán
23Saúl Coco
33Rafael Obrador
66G. Gineitis
6E. İlkhan
10N. Vlašić
20V. Lazaro
18G. Simeone
17S. Kulenović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Torino
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Torino-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
1.00points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-6
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.38
Torino · Away
1.08points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Napoli | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lazio | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H | D 3–3 A |
| Bologna | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Cagliari | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Pisa | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Inter | L 1–2 H | L 0–5 A |
| Udinese | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Verona | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Como | D 1–1 A | L 0–6 AL 1–5 H |
| Juventus | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Lecce | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 24 of 72 · 1.00 per game | 24 of 72 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Genoa wins3 draws3 Torino wins
Goals per game0.71 – 1.00
Over 2.529%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets43% · 43%
- 26 Oct 2025Torino2–1Genoa
- 8 Feb 2025Torino1–1Genoa
- 7 Dec 2024Genoa0–0Torino
- 13 Jan 2024Genoa0–0Torino
- 3 Sep 2023Torino1–0Genoa
- 18 Mar 2022Genoa1–0Torino
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.76 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.76 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 44% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 32% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Genoa | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.48 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.71 | 4.48 | |
| Match total | 9.19 | 8.26 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 11/21 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 9/21 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 19% 4/21 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 1.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.52 | 1.44 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.40 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 84% 21/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 12/25 | 20% 5/25 | |
| Genoa | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 7.50 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.50 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.79
Red cards0.11league 0.20
Cards 5+40%league 37%
Fouls24.0league 25.4
Penalties0.36league 0.32
Home wins42%league 37%
Genoa6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D9 Nov 25H · Fiorentina2–22
- D15 Dec 24A · AC Milan0–02
- W4 Nov 24A · Parma1–05
- W22 Dec 23A · Sassuolo2–11
- L5 Nov 23A · Cagliari1–22
Torino4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Sep 23H · AS Roma1–10
- W27 May 23A · Spezia4–02
- D13 Mar 22H · Inter1–11
- L22 Dec 21A · Inter0–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa25 games · scored 29 · conceded 37
5
5
0-15
3
6
16-30
4
6
31-45
2
7
46-60
7
7
61-75
8
6
76-90
Torino25 games · scored 25 · conceded 44
2
4
0-15
6
9
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
7
46-60
4
10
61-75
6
7
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
31-45
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
