Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 21). Gent had 5.2 days of rest, Charleroi 5.1 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days5.2 · 5.1Matches / 14d3 · 2
Gent59%
Draw23%
Charleroi18%
Gent59%
Draw23%
Charleroi18%
Gent59%
Draw23%
Charleroi18%
Gent52%
Draw25%
Charleroi23%
Gent59%
Draw23%
Charleroi18%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 32
Team strength
Gent
Charleroi
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
46
AttackIn forecast
43
61
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentCharleroi
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
89%
Scored inContext
78%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
13.11
ShotsContext
10.11
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
37%
On target shareContext
36%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.22
67%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.78
Shots allowedContext
10.89
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
4.71
BlocksContext
3.75
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
78%
Save rateContext
69%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
465
PassesContext
368
385
Accurate passesContext
295
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.44
FoulsContext
12.44
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.70
ShotsContext
10.11
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
35%
On target shareContext
36%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.22
66%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.44
14.00
Shots allowedContext
10.89
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
4.63
BlocksContext
3.75
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
80%
Save rateContext
69%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
458
PassesContext
368
379
Accurate passesContext
295
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.90
FoulsContext
12.44
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Charleroi
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 176 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.9 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
29J. Duverne
8M. Skóraś
37A. Kadri
17M. Delorge-Knieper
18M. Samoise
15A. Ito
6O. Gandelman
7A. Kanga
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
17A. Bernier
8J. Romsaas
14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Charleroi · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Gent | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge | W 4–2 A | W 3–2 A |
| Dender | W 3–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Antwerp | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| St. Truiden | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 13 of 18 · 2.17 per game | 8 of 18 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Gent wins0 draws0 Charleroi wins
Goals per game4.00 – 0.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 17 Mar 2024Gent5–0Charleroi
- 5 Nov 2023Charleroi1–3Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.67 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 44% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Gent | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.67 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 44% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 8.78 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.89 | 3.78 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Gent | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 8.78 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.90 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.09league 3.90
Red cards0.44league 0.22
Cards 5+63%league 43%
Fouls22.6league 22.7
Penalties0.09league 0.31
Home wins38%league 40%
Gent2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W14 Sep 25A · Antwerp2–13
- W30 Jul 23H · Kortrijk3–21
Charleroi1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W6 Oct 23H · RWDM2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent9 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
Charleroi9 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
8
3
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
