Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gent
7th · 22 pts · 15 played
LWLDD
First leg1–3
1–2Full time
St. Truiden
4th · 27 pts · 15 played
DLWWW
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 31). Gent had 8 days of rest, St. Truiden 7 and had to travel.
Rest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Gent48%
Draw26%
St. Truiden26%
Gent48%
Draw26%
St. Truiden26%
Gent48%
Draw26%
St. Truiden26%
Gent41%
Draw27%
St. Truiden33%
Gent48%
Draw26%
St. Truiden26%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 39
Team strength
GentSt. Truiden
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
46
AttackIn forecast
37
61
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentSt. Truiden
1.53
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
80%
Scored inContext
80%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
12.93
ShotsContext
14.33
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
36%
On target shareContext
30%
8.27
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
64%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.20
OffsidesContext
3.08
13.47
Shots allowedContext
10.73
5.07
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
4.08
BlocksContext
3.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
78%
Save rateContext
74%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
471
PassesContext
437
393
Accurate passesContext
360
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.87
FoulsContext
12.47
10.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.52
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.80
ShotsContext
14.30
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
37%
On target shareContext
29%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
63%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
1.83
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.20
Shots allowedContext
12.30
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.44
BlocksContext
2.89
4.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
82%
Save rateContext
74%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
462
PassesContext
426
385
Accurate passesContext
350
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.00
FoulsContext
11.60
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km168 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
St. Truiden
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 168 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
20Tiago Araújo
44S. Van der Heyden
57Matties Volckaert
18M. Samoise
15A. Ito
17M. Delorge-Knieper
8M. Skóraś
37A. Kadri
6O. Gandelman
7A. Kanga
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
60R. Vanwesemael
5S. Taniguchi
26V. Musliu
20R. Van Helden
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
7A. Muja
42Keisuke Goto
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
2.00points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.86
St. Truiden · Away
1.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Gent | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo | D 0–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Genk | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| OH Leuven | L 0–4 A | W 2–1 A |
| Standard Liege | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–4 A | W 2–0 A |
| Charleroi | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 4–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Dender | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Antwerp | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 2–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 22 of 42 · 1.57 per game | 24 of 42 · 1.71 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Gent wins1 draws2 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game1.33 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 27 Jul 2025St. Truiden3–1Gent
- 1 Feb 2024St. Truiden4–1Gent
- 20 Aug 2023Gent2–2St. Truiden
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.53 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.53 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 47% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 53% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Gent | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.50 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.64 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.14 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 10.14 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 8/14 | 79% 11/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 7/14 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 6/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.87 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.07 | 3.80 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 8/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 8/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Gent | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 10.89 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.80 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.13league 3.85
Red cards0.41league 0.20
Cards 5+67%league 43%
Fouls23.1league 23.1
Penalties0.13league 0.29
Home wins41%league 43%
Gent3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W3 Oct 25H · Charleroi2–12
- W14 Sep 25A · Antwerp2–13
- W30 Jul 23H · Kortrijk3–21
St. Truiden2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.4.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L28 Sep 25H · Genk1–25
- L13 Aug 23H · Anderlecht0–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent15 games · scored 23 · conceded 22
3
1
0-15
2
6
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
9
5
76-90
St. Truiden15 games · scored 21 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
8
3
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
