Gent
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Gent
7th · 22 pts · 15 played
LWLDD
First leg1–3
1–2Full time
St. Truiden
4th · 27 pts · 15 played
DLWWW
Gent48.2%fair odds 2.07
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.87
St. Truiden26.0%fair odds 3.85
Expected goals1.63 – 1.14total 2.77
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
St. Truiden
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Gent ↓ · St. Truiden → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Gent goals, columns St. Truiden goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.15
- 1–09.6%10.39
- 2–19.5%10.54
- 2–08.3%11.98
- 0–06.9%14.49
- 1–26.6%15.09
- 0–16.5%15.31
- 2–25.4%18.52
- 3–15.2%19.40
- 3–04.5%22.06
Winning margin
10.8%
Gent by 3+
fair 9.26
14.9%
Gent by 2
fair 6.73
22.5%
Gent by 1
fair 4.44
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.87
15.6%
St. Truiden by 1
fair 6.43
7.2%
St. Truiden by 2
fair 13.82
3.2%
St. Truiden by 3+
fair 31.29
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Gent goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
St. Truiden goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 48.2% | 48.1% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.1% | -0.3 pp |
| St. Truiden win | 26.0% | 25.9% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 51.1% | +1.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.2% | 54.3% | +0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Gent | 1.63 | 1.60 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals St. Truiden | 1.14 | 1.12 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Gent win48.2%2.07
- Draw25.8%3.87
- St. Truiden win26.0%3.85
- Double chance Gent or draw74.0%1.35
- Double chance Gent or St. Truiden74.2%1.35
- Double chance St. Truiden or draw51.8%1.93
- Draw no bet Gent65.0%1.54
- Draw no bet St. Truiden35.0%2.85
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.576.9%1.30
- Over 2.552.3%1.91
- Over 3.530.1%3.33
- Over 4.514.7%6.79
- Under 1.523.1%4.34
- Under 2.547.7%2.09
- Under 3.569.9%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes55.2%1.81
- No44.8%2.23
- Yes and over 2.543.0%2.33
- Gent win and yes23.0%4.34
- Draw and yes18.9%5.29
- St. Truiden win and yes13.3%7.53
Team goals
- Gent over 0.580.4%1.24
- Gent over 1.548.5%2.06
- Gent over 2.522.4%4.46
- St. Truiden over 0.567.9%1.47
- St. Truiden over 1.531.5%3.18
- St. Truiden over 2.510.7%9.32
- Gent clean sheet32.1%3.12
- St. Truiden clean sheet19.6%5.10
- Gent win to nil25.2%3.97
- St. Truiden win to nil12.7%7.87
Handicap
- Gent −1.525.7%3.90
- Gent −2.510.8%9.26
- St. Truiden +1.574.3%1.34
- St. Truiden +2.589.2%1.12
- St. Truiden −1.510.4%9.58
- Gent +1.589.6%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored127
Favourite won45.7%
Avg chance given to result38.1%
1X2 Brier0.617
Over 2.5 called right52.8%
BTTS called right50.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 38.3% | 31.8% |
| 40–50% | 67 | 44.9% | 35.8% |
| 50–60% | 24 | 55.1% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 65.2% | 81.8% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 89 of 127 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6220 | 0.6185 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.1% | 38.8% |
| Favourite won | 44.9% | 46.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 89 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Dender 2–2 KVC Westerlo42·27·31
- ✗KV Mechelen 0–1 Standard Liege49·26·25
- ✗OH Leuven 1–2 St. Truiden38·27·35
- ✓RAAL La Louvière 0–1 Anderlecht29·28·43
- ✗Antwerp 1–2 Dender57·24·19
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 127 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.