Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gent
6th · 39 pts · 28 played
LWLLW
First leg1–4
2–0Full time
Zulte Waregem
12th · 29 pts · 28 played
WLLLL
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Zulte Waregem. Gent had 5.2 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 5.1 and had to travel 27 km.
Away travel27 kmRest days5.2 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Gent50%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem24%
Gent54%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem21%
Gent50%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem24%
Gent43%
Draw26%
Zulte Waregem31%
Gent51%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem24%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 26
Team strength
GentZulte Waregem
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
46
AttackIn forecast
27
61
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentZulte Waregem
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.61
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
79%
Scored inContext
75%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
12.71
ShotsContext
12.39
4.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.37
34%
On target shareContext
34%
8.39
Shots in the boxContext
8.12
65%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.85
13.75
Shots allowedContext
12.46
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.46
3.92
BlocksContext
3.32
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
72%
Save rateContext
65%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
430
PassesContext
399
352
Accurate passesContext
321
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.46
FoulsContext
10.46
11.04
Fouls sufferedContext
11.32
1.54
Yellow cardsContext
1.54
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.80
ShotsContext
15.60
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
33%
On target shareContext
30%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
74%
Box shareContext
60%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
9.50
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.00
BlocksContext
2.50
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
59%
Save rateContext
57%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
365
PassesContext
418
292
Accurate passesContext
334
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.80
FoulsContext
8.90
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km250 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Zulte Waregem
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel27 km150 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 27 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 250 km | 150 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
57Matties Volckaert
4D. Hashioka
8M. Skóraś
22Leonardo Lopes
27T. De Vlieger
29J. Duverne
24H. Hong
7A. Kanga
21M. Dean
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
31L. Willen
5Jakob Kiilerich
45Benoit De Jaegere
55Y. Cappelle
8T. Claes
40D. Asare
12W. Paugain
10Jeppe Erenbjerg
22J. Opoku
18A. Ementa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
1.64points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-5
- Scored
- 1.79
- Conceded
- 1.21
Zulte Waregem · Away
0.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-7
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Gent | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Genk | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Cercle Brugge | L 0–1 HW 4–2 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Charleroi | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| OH Leuven | L 1–3 HL 0–4 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Standard Liege | W 4–0 AW 4–0 H | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Anderlecht | W 4–2 HL 0–1 A | L 2–4 HW 3–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 3–4 AL 0–1 H |
| Antwerp | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Dender | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 39 of 81 · 1.44 per game | 26 of 81 · 0.96 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Gent wins0 draws1 Zulte Waregem wins
Goals per game1.00 – 4.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 19 Oct 2025Zulte Waregem4–1Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.61 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 2.93 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 64% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 25% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Gent | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.77 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.62 | 5.28 | |
| Match total | 10.39 | 9.84 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 17/26 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 16/26 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 14/26 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.68 | 1.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 3.68 | 3.75 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 13/28 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 11/28 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Gent | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 3.13 | |
| Match total | 11.70 | 8.63 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.80 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.35league 3.86
Red cards0.12league 0.19
Cards 5+23%league 40%
Fouls22.8league 22.7
Penalties0.27league 0.31
Home wins35%league 41%
Gent4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W27 Dec 25H · KVC Westerlo2–01
- D6 Dec 25A · Union St. Gilloise1–11
- D27 Jan 24H · KVC Westerlo2–22
- W26 Dec 23A · Kortrijk2–01
Zulte WaregemNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent28 games · scored 44 · conceded 42
6
3
0-15
5
10
16-30
7
7
31-45
7
4
46-60
4
7
61-75
15
11
76-90
Zulte Waregem28 games · scored 37 · conceded 45
3
8
0-15
8
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
5
61-75
11
12
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 19 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
7
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
