Gent
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Gent
6th · 39 pts · 28 played
LWLLW
First leg1–4
2–0Full time
Zulte Waregem
12th · 29 pts · 28 played
WLLLL
Gent50.5%fair odds 1.98
Draw25.1%fair odds 3.99
Zulte Waregem24.4%fair odds 4.09
Expected goals1.71 – 1.13total 2.84
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Zulte Waregem
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Gent ↓ · Zulte Waregem → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Gent goals, columns Zulte Waregem goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.42
- 2–19.7%10.35
- 1–09.4%10.64
- 2–08.6%11.68
- 0–06.4%15.56
- 1–26.4%15.73
- 0–16.0%16.72
- 3–15.5%18.12
- 2–25.4%18.35
- 3–04.9%20.44
Winning margin
12.2%
Gent by 3+
fair 8.23
15.6%
Gent by 2
fair 6.41
22.7%
Gent by 1
fair 4.40
25.1%
Draw
fair 3.99
14.8%
Zulte Waregem by 1
fair 6.78
6.8%
Zulte Waregem by 2
fair 14.79
2.9%
Zulte Waregem by 3+
fair 34.07
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Gent goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
10%4+
Zulte Waregem goals
32%0
37%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 50.5% | 50.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.1% | 24.9% | +0.2 pp |
| Zulte Waregem win | 24.4% | 24.5% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 54.8% | -0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.0% | 56.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Expected goals Gent | 1.71 | 1.73 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Zulte Waregem | 1.13 | 1.14 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Gent win50.5%1.98
- Draw25.1%3.99
- Zulte Waregem win24.4%4.09
- Double chance Gent or draw75.6%1.32
- Double chance Gent or Zulte Waregem74.9%1.33
- Double chance Zulte Waregem or draw49.5%2.02
- Draw no bet Gent67.4%1.48
- Draw no bet Zulte Waregem32.6%3.07
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.578.2%1.28
- Over 2.554.1%1.85
- Over 3.531.7%3.15
- Over 4.515.9%6.29
- Under 1.521.8%4.59
- Under 2.545.9%2.18
- Under 3.568.3%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes56.0%1.78
- No44.0%2.28
- Yes and over 2.544.2%2.26
- Gent win and yes24.5%4.07
- Draw and yes18.6%5.36
- Zulte Waregem win and yes12.9%7.78
Team goals
- Gent over 0.582.0%1.22
- Gent over 1.551.1%1.96
- Gent over 2.524.6%4.06
- Zulte Waregem over 0.567.6%1.48
- Zulte Waregem over 1.531.1%3.21
- Zulte Waregem over 2.510.5%9.50
- Gent clean sheet32.4%3.09
- Zulte Waregem clean sheet18.0%5.55
- Gent win to nil25.9%3.86
- Zulte Waregem win to nil11.6%8.63
Handicap
- Gent −1.527.8%3.60
- Gent −2.512.2%8.23
- Zulte Waregem +1.572.2%1.38
- Zulte Waregem +2.587.8%1.14
- Zulte Waregem −1.59.7%10.32
- Gent +1.590.3%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored224
Favourite won43.8%
Avg chance given to result37.4%
1X2 Brier0.633
Over 2.5 called right54.9%
BTTS called right51.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 42 | 38.0% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 101 | 44.7% | 36.6% |
| 50–60% | 55 | 54.7% | 54.5% |
| 60–70% | 22 | 64.5% | 68.2% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 171 of 224 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6427 | 0.6302 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.1% | 38.0% |
| Favourite won | 42.7% | 43.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 171 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓St. Truiden 2–1 Cercle Brugge54·25·21
- ✗Zulte Waregem 0–1 Standard Liege41·27·32
- ✓Gent 3–1 KV Mechelen41·27·32
- ✗Club Brugge KV 2–2 Anderlecht61·22·18
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–1 Genk47·26·27
- ✗Dender 2–2 Charleroi41·27·32
- ✗OH Leuven 0–1 KVC Westerlo39·27·34
- ✗RAAL La Louvière 0–0 Antwerp33·30·37
- ✗Cercle Brugge 0–0 Dender52·25·23
- ✓Charleroi 1–2 Club Brugge KV21·22·57
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 224 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.