Getafe
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Getafe41.2%fair odds 2.43
Draw28.8%fair odds 3.47
Alaves30.0%fair odds 3.34
Expected goals1.31 – 1.08total 2.40
Likeliest score1–113.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Alaves
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Getafe ↓ · Alaves → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.6 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Getafe goals, columns Alaves goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.6%7.33
- 1–011.3%8.87
- 0–09.8%10.22
- 0–19.2%10.91
- 2–18.5%11.75
- 2–07.9%12.71
- 1–27.0%14.28
- 0–25.3%18.77
- 2–24.6%21.72
- 3–13.7%26.81
Winning margin
6.8%
Getafe by 3+
fair 14.64
12.3%
Getafe by 2
fair 8.11
22.1%
Getafe by 1
fair 4.53
28.8%
Draw
fair 3.47
18.0%
Alaves by 1
fair 5.54
8.3%
Alaves by 2
fair 11.98
3.6%
Alaves by 3+
fair 28.03
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Getafe goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Alaves goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe win | 41.2% | 43.2% | -2.0 pp |
| Draw | 28.8% | 26.9% | +1.9 pp |
| Alaves win | 30.0% | 29.9% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 42.9% | 50.2% | -7.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.0% | 54.7% | -5.6 pp |
| Expected goals Getafe | 1.31 | 1.49 | -0.17 |
| Expected goals Alaves | 1.08 | 1.20 | -0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Getafe win41.2%2.43
- Draw28.8%3.47
- Alaves win30.0%3.34
- Double chance Getafe or draw70.0%1.43
- Double chance Getafe or Alaves71.2%1.40
- Double chance Alaves or draw58.8%1.70
- Draw no bet Getafe57.9%1.73
- Draw no bet Alaves42.1%2.38
Goals
- Over 0.590.2%1.11
- Over 1.569.8%1.43
- Over 2.542.9%2.33
- Over 3.522.1%4.53
- Over 4.59.5%10.48
- Under 1.530.2%3.31
- Under 2.557.1%1.75
- Under 3.577.9%1.28
Both teams to score
- Yes49.0%2.04
- No51.0%1.96
- Yes and over 2.535.4%2.82
- Getafe win and yes17.1%5.84
- Draw and yes19.0%5.25
- Alaves win and yes12.9%7.76
Team goals
- Getafe over 0.573.1%1.37
- Getafe over 1.537.8%2.64
- Getafe over 2.514.6%6.84
- Alaves over 0.566.1%1.51
- Alaves over 1.529.4%3.40
- Alaves over 2.59.6%10.42
- Getafe clean sheet33.9%2.95
- Alaves clean sheet26.9%3.72
- Getafe win to nil24.1%4.15
- Alaves win to nil17.1%5.86
Handicap
- Getafe −1.519.2%5.22
- Getafe −2.56.8%14.64
- Alaves +1.580.8%1.24
- Alaves +2.593.2%1.07
- Alaves −1.511.9%8.39
- Getafe +1.588.1%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored55
Favourite won50.9%
Avg chance given to result42.1%
1X2 Brier0.567
Over 2.5 called right56.4%
BTTS called right63.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.0% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 19 | 44.2% | 36.8% |
| 50–60% | 14 | 53.6% | 57.1% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 64.7% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 74.1% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 24 of 55 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5533 | 0.5640 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.7% | 42.8% |
| Favourite won | 54.2% | 54.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 24 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 55 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.