Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 41). Celta Vigo come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Getafe had 5.9 days of rest, Celta Vigo 2.9 and had to travel 469 km.
Away travel469 kmRest days5.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 4
Getafe32%
Draw29%
Celta Vigo38%
Getafe31%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo42%
Getafe33%
Draw30%
Celta Vigo38%
Getafe26%
Draw29%
Celta Vigo45%
Getafe30%
Draw28%
Celta Vigo42%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 11
Team strength
Getafe
Celta Vigo
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
27
AttackIn forecast
36
59
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeCelta Vigo
0.76
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
57%
Scored inContext
86%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
9.24
ShotsContext
10.38
2.84
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.95
28%
On target shareContext
38%
5.21
Shots in the boxContext
6.52
53%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.56
10.29
Shots allowedContext
12.19
4.05
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
2.47
BlocksContext
3.45
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
76%
Save rateContext
77%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
297
PassesContext
482
209
Accurate passesContext
414
71%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.43
FoulsContext
11.33
15.05
Fouls sufferedContext
11.62
2.76
Yellow cardsContext
1.81
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
40%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.30
ShotsContext
7.90
2.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
24%
On target shareContext
49%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.20
57%
Box shareContext
66%
4%
ConversionContext
22%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.13
10.30
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.67
BlocksContext
4.20
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
73%
Save rateContext
78%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
318
PassesContext
414
229
Accurate passesContext
344
72%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.10
FoulsContext
11.10
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,160 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celta Vigo
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel469 km5,843 km in 14d
Schedule load59%High
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | High · 59 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Jan | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 469 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,160 km | 5,843 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 2 / 4 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
21Juan Iglesias
24Z. Romero
2D. Dakonam
22Domingos Duarte
17Kiko Femenía
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
6Mario Martín
10M. Satriano
19L. Vázquez
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
2C. Starfelt
32Javi Rodríguez
3Óscar Mingueza
6I. Moriba
16Miguel Román
39Jones El-Abdellaoui
19W. Swedberg
8Fer López
7Borja Iglesias
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Celta Vigo+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
1.10points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-5
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 0.90
Celta Vigo · Away
1.80points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-2
- Scored
- 1.30
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Girona | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Valencia | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | W 4–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 H | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Villarreal | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Elche | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 A | W 3–2 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Alaves | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 A | L 2–4 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 19 of 60 · 0.95 per game | 32 of 60 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Getafe wins2 draws4 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets30% · 30%
- 17 Aug 2025Celta Vigo0–2Getafe
- 24 May 2025Getafe1–2Celta Vigo
- 4 Nov 2024Celta Vigo1–0Getafe
- 11 Feb 2024Getafe3–2Celta Vigo
- 8 Oct 2023Celta Vigo2–2Getafe
- 3 May 2023Getafe1–0Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.76 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.05 | 2.48 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 5% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 62% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 14% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Getafe | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.50 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 50% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.48 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.95 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 8.71 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 9/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 7/21 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 5/21 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 2.71 | |
| Match total | 5.09 | 4.57 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 16/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 62% 13/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Getafe | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 2.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 7.89 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.70 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.09league 4.17
Red cards0.27league 0.28
Cards 5+55%league 45%
Fouls27.5league 24.5
Penalties0.36league 0.37
Home wins27%league 48%
Getafe1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Aug 25A · Celta Vigo2–02
Celta Vigo1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Aug 25H · Getafe0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe21 games · scored 16 · conceded 27
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
8
76-90
Celta Vigo20 games · scored 27 · conceded 23
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
6
2
46-60
3
7
61-75
9
4
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 4 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
