Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Getafe were slight favourites.
Getafe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 40). Elche usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Getafe had 5.1 days of rest, Elche 5 and had to travel 346 km.
Away travel346 kmRest days5.1 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 1
Getafe46%
Draw27%
Elche27%
Getafe48%
Draw26%
Elche26%
Getafe46%
Draw27%
Elche27%
Getafe39%
Draw28%
Elche33%
Getafe48%
Draw26%
Elche26%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 120
Team strength
Getafe
Elche
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
27
AttackIn forecast
39
59
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeElche
0.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
1.15
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.23
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
62%
Scored inContext
85%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
8.69
ShotsContext
11.00
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
29%
On target shareContext
36%
4.64
Shots in the boxContext
7.46
48%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.22
10.15
Shots allowedContext
12.62
4.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.92
2.42
BlocksContext
3.62
3.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.69
79%
Save rateContext
69%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
287
PassesContext
522
201
Accurate passesContext
455
70%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.00
FoulsContext
12.62
15.15
Fouls sufferedContext
14.38
2.62
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.15
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.40
ShotsContext
11.50
2.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
27%
On target shareContext
37%
4.38
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
46%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.70
OffsidesContext
2.14
10.40
Shots allowedContext
12.90
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.56
BlocksContext
3.80
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
79%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
296
PassesContext
514
206
Accurate passesContext
447
70%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.30
FoulsContext
13.00
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Elche
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel346 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 5La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 346 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 8.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
12A. Nyom
2D. Dakonam
22Domingos Duarte
21Juan Iglesias
18Alex Sancris
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
17Kiko Femenía
9Borja Mayoral
23Adrian Liso
Elche
Confirmed XI
13Iñaki Peña(G)
11Germán Valera
21L. Pétrot
22D. Affengruber
15Alvaro Núñez
39Héctor Fort
16Martim Neto
14Aleix Febas
19G. Diangana
9André Silva
20Á. Rodríguez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Elche+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
1.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.83
Elche · Away
0.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Alaves | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 14 of 30 · 1.40 per game | 14 of 30 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Getafe wins2 draws2 Elche wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.17
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 20 May 2023Getafe1–1Elche
- 31 Oct 2022Elche0–1Getafe
- 22 May 2022Elche3–1Getafe
- 13 Sep 2021Getafe0–1Elche
- 21 Mar 2021Getafe1–1Elche
- 11 Jan 2021Elche1–3Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.92 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.23 | |
| Match goals | 2.08 | 2.38 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 38% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 69% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 15% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Getafe | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.50 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.92 | 3.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.69 | |
| Match total | 8.92 | 7.77 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 6/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 5/13 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 4/13 | 15% 2/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.77 | 2.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.23 | 2.15 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.46 | 4.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 10/13 | 77% 10/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 62% 8/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Getafe | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 7.90 | 9.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.90 | 4.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 120 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.19league 4.04
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+61%league 45%
Fouls25.2league 24.5
Penalties0.31league 0.34
Home wins37%league 48%
Getafe11 with this referee
Record6-3-2
Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 4
Reds5
- L29 Aug 25A · Valencia0–30
- W18 May 25A · Mallorca2–12
- W16 Mar 25A · Osasuna2–14
- L1 Dec 24A · Real Madrid0–26
- W11 Feb 24H · Celta Vigo3–21
Elche4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L2 May 23A · Almeria1–22
- L7 May 22A · Cadiz0–31
- L6 Mar 22H · Barcelona1–23
- D21 Mar 21A · Getafe1–17
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe13 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Elche13 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
7
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
