Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 46). Real Madrid usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Getafe had 16 days of rest, Real Madrid 15 and had to travel 13 km.
Away travel13 kmRest days16 · 15Matches / 14d0 · 0
Getafe15%
Draw22%
Real Madrid63%
Getafe15%
Draw22%
Real Madrid63%
Getafe15%
Draw22%
Real Madrid63%
Getafe11%
Draw19%
Real Madrid70%
Getafe16%
Draw21%
Real Madrid63%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 28
Team strength
Getafe
Real Madrid
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
27
AttackIn forecast
89
59
DefenceIn forecast
85
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeReal Madrid
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.38
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
2.08
0.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
75%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
8.13
ShotsContext
18.00
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.25
34%
On target shareContext
35%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
50%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.38
Shots allowedContext
9.75
3.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.43
2.14
BlocksContext
4.83
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.86
72%
Save rateContext
54%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
289
PassesContext
615
207
Accurate passesContext
555
72%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.71
Team ratingContext
7.19
14.38
FoulsContext
9.63
14.25
Fouls sufferedContext
13.63
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.79
xGVia Att/Def
2.33
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.10
ShotsContext
18.90
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.40
33%
On target shareContext
39%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.90
56%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.57
9.70
Shots allowedContext
10.30
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
2.11
BlocksContext
4.00
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
73%
Save rateContext
64%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
284
PassesContext
591
203
Accurate passesContext
531
72%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.16
13.70
FoulsContext
9.40
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
Rest16 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Madrid
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel13 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Oct | 15La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 13 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
16Diego Rico
2D. Dakonam
22Domingos Duarte
21Juan Iglesias
17Kiko Femenía
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
6Mario Martín
23Adrian Liso
18Alex Sancris
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
4D. Alaba
3Éder Militão
8F. Valverde
6E. Camavinga
14A. Tchouaméni
11Rodrygo
5J. Bellingham
30Franco Mastantuono
10K. Mbappé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Real Madrid+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Real Madrid · Away
2.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | W 4–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Getafe wins1 draws8 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game0.20 – 1.30
Over 2.510%
Both scored10%
Clean sheets20% · 80%
- 23 Apr 2025Getafe0–1Real Madrid
- 1 Dec 2024Real Madrid2–0Getafe
- 1 Feb 2024Getafe0–2Real Madrid
- 2 Sep 2023Real Madrid2–1Getafe
- 13 May 2023Real Madrid1–0Getafe
- 8 Oct 2022Getafe0–1Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 2.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Getafe | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 2.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 63% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.50 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 88% 7/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 6/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Getafe | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 9.50 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.57league 4.05
Red cards0.21league 0.27
Cards 5+54%league 44%
Fouls25.3league 24.5
Penalties0.14league 0.30
Home wins36%league 47%
Getafe2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W16 Mar 24H · Girona1–04
- D19 Dec 23A · Atletico Madrid3–33
Real Madrid3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W26 Apr 24A · Real Sociedad1–04
- W27 Sep 23H · Las Palmas2–00
- W22 May 21H · Villarreal2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe8 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
Real Madrid8 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 26 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
