Getafe
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Getafe14.9%fair odds 6.69
Draw22.1%fair odds 4.53
Real Madrid63.0%fair odds 1.59
Expected goals0.85 – 1.97total 2.82
Likeliest score0–211.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Real Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Getafe ↓ · Real Madrid → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Getafe goals, columns Real Madrid goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.5%8.66
- 0–111.2%8.93
- 1–110.5%9.51
- 1–29.8%10.17
- 0–37.6%13.19
- 0–06.5%15.43
- 1–36.5%15.49
- 1–04.5%22.02
- 2–14.3%23.51
- 2–24.2%23.87
Winning margin
1.1%
Getafe by 3+
fair 88.31
3.7%
Getafe by 2
fair 27.39
10.2%
Getafe by 1
fair 9.84
22.1%
Draw
fair 4.53
24.2%
Real Madrid by 1
fair 4.13
19.5%
Real Madrid by 2
fair 5.12
19.3%
Real Madrid by 3+
fair 5.19
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Getafe goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
Real Madrid goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe win | 14.9% | 15.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 22.1% | 21.4% | +0.6 pp |
| Real Madrid win | 63.0% | 63.0% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 57.3% | -3.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.9% | 53.2% | -3.3 pp |
| Expected goals Getafe | 0.85 | 0.93 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Real Madrid | 1.97 | 2.06 | -0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Getafe win14.9%6.69
- Draw22.1%4.53
- Real Madrid win63.0%1.59
- Double chance Getafe or draw37.0%2.70
- Double chance Getafe or Real Madrid77.9%1.28
- Double chance Real Madrid or draw85.1%1.18
- Draw no bet Getafe19.2%5.22
- Draw no bet Real Madrid80.8%1.24
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.577.8%1.29
- Over 2.553.6%1.87
- Over 3.531.3%3.20
- Over 4.515.6%6.42
- Under 1.522.2%4.50
- Under 2.546.4%2.15
- Under 3.568.7%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes49.9%2.01
- No50.1%1.99
- Yes and over 2.539.4%2.54
- Getafe win and yes7.5%13.37
- Draw and yes15.6%6.42
- Real Madrid win and yes26.8%3.73
Team goals
- Getafe over 0.557.3%1.74
- Getafe over 1.521.0%4.76
- Getafe over 2.55.5%18.13
- Real Madrid over 0.586.1%1.16
- Real Madrid over 1.558.6%1.71
- Real Madrid over 2.531.5%3.17
- Getafe clean sheet13.9%7.17
- Real Madrid clean sheet42.7%2.34
- Getafe win to nil7.5%13.39
- Real Madrid win to nil36.2%2.76
Handicap
- Getafe −1.54.8%20.91
- Getafe −2.51.1%88.31
- Real Madrid +1.595.2%1.05
- Real Madrid +2.598.9%1.01
- Real Madrid −1.538.8%2.58
- Getafe +1.561.2%1.63
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored88
Favourite won51.1%
Avg chance given to result41.4%
1X2 Brier0.576
Over 2.5 called right59.1%
BTTS called right59.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 13 | 38.1% | 46.2% |
| 40–50% | 36 | 44.2% | 36.1% |
| 50–60% | 18 | 53.8% | 55.6% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 63.9% | 63.6% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 74.9% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 57 of 88 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5749 | 0.5738 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.3% | 41.9% |
| Favourite won | 52.6% | 50.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 57 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 88 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.