GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were clear favourites.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for GIL Vicente. GIL Vicente had 12.9 days of rest, AVS 12.8 and had to travel.
Rest days12.9 · 12.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
GIL Vicente64%
Draw23%
AVS13%
GIL Vicente65%
Draw21%
AVS14%
GIL Vicente64%
Draw23%
AVS13%
GIL Vicente57%
Draw26%
AVS17%
GIL Vicente65%
Draw22%
AVS13%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 41%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuis Carlos Mateus Filipe
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 7
Team strength
GIL Vicente
AVS
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
11
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
32
AttackIn forecast
17
50
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteAVS
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.04
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.15
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
78%
Scored inContext
41%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
13.63
ShotsContext
9.85
4.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.65
33%
On target shareContext
26%
7.74
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
57%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
1.95
OffsidesContext
2.06
9.85
Shots allowedContext
14.33
3.84
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.19
2.32
BlocksContext
3.54
2.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
71%
Save rateContext
62%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
362
PassesContext
303
292
Accurate passesContext
224
81%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.59
13.67
FoulsContext
13.44
14.19
Fouls sufferedContext
11.15
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
80%
Scored inContext
30%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.40
ShotsContext
10.40
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.33
36%
On target shareContext
20%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.20
60%
Box shareContext
53%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.43
9.80
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.10
BlocksContext
4.33
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
54%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
386
PassesContext
280
316
Accurate passesContext
195
82%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.67
12.60
FoulsContext
12.30
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,034 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
AVS
Rest12.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
AVS |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 12.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,034 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
99Daniel Figueira(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
48Espigares
2Zé Carlos
95Santi García
5F. Cáseres
27Agustín Moreira
10Luís Esteves
77Murilo
89Gustavo Varela
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
12Leonardo Rivas
3Paulo Vitor
33Aderllan Santos
97Mateus Pivô
23Gustavo Mendonça
26Carlos Ponck
8Pedro Lima
25A. Green
7Tómané
11B. Akinsola
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AVS+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
1.85points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-3
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 0.92
AVS · Away
0.31points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-9
- Scored
- 0.62
- Conceded
- 2.62
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GIL Vicente | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Alverca | D 2–2 HW 4–0 A | D 0–0 AL 1–3 H |
| Estrela | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Estoril | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H | W 3–0 HL 1–3 A |
| SC Braga | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–4 HD 2–2 A |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Famalicao | W 5–0 HD 0–0 A | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Nacional | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 H | L 0–6 A |
| Arouca | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Rio Ave | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Casa Pia | D 1–1 A | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Guimaraes | D 0–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| Tondela | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Points | 41 of 78 · 1.58 per game | 10 of 78 · 0.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 GIL Vicente wins1 draws1 AVS wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 9 Nov 2025AVS1–1GIL Vicente
- 27 Jan 2025AVS1–0GIL Vicente
- 16 Aug 2024GIL Vicente4–2AVS
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.04 | 2.15 | |
| Match goals | 2.48 | 2.81 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 59% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 37% | 41% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 59% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| GIL Vicente | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.20 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% | 41% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.61 | 4.04 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.48 | 5.83 | |
| Match total | 10.09 | 9.87 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 15/23 | 70% 16/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 61% 14/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 13/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.48 | 2.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.52 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.56 | 5.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 19/27 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 15/27 | 48% 13/27 | |
| GIL Vicente | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 6.22 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 10.66 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.00 | 5.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe Portugal · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.14league 4.81
Red cards0.29league 0.26
Cards 5+71%league 58%
Fouls26.6league 27.0
Penalties0.14league 0.44
Home wins43%league 41%
GIL VicenteNo previous matches with this referee.
AVS2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L9 Feb 26A · Famalicao1–32
- D2 Nov 25H · Tondela2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente27 games · scored 39 · conceded 28
7
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
12
5
31-45
6
4
46-60
4
6
61-75
9
5
76-90
AVS27 games · scored 18 · conceded 58
1
9
0-15
1
8
16-30
4
10
31-45
3
12
46-60
3
12
61-75
6
7
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
4
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
