Primeira Liga Gameweek 28 Sat, Apr 4 2026 · 15:30 Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
Nacional
2–0 Full time · HT 1–0 xG 0.94 – 0.49
Estrela
  • J. Ramírez 2’
  • Paulinho Bóia 71’
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Nacional beat Estrela

Nacional entered as narrow favourites and won 2–0 through goals from Ramírez and Bóia. Nacional finished with the higher xG (0.94 vs 0.49). On the chances created, Estrela deserved more: 0.9 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Nacional ✓41%
Draw28%
Estrela31%

Model vs reality

Nacional goals
2
Model 1.39 · xG 0.94
Estrela goals
0
Model 1.17 · xG 0.49
Total goals
2
Model 2.56 · xG 1.43
Score 2–0
7%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 47%
Both scored
No
Model 52%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchPaulinho BóiaNacional · 1 goal
8.3
  • RefereeJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves
  • Coaches— · Joao Nuno
  • VenueEstádio da Madeira
  • Table before kick-offNacional 16th · Estrela 14th

Timeline

  1. Luan PatrickYellow card
    1’
  2. J. Ramírez 1–0
    2’
  3. Rodrigo PinhoYellow card
    16’
  4. Léo SantosYellow card
    45+3’
  5. Half time · 1–0
  6. ⇄ T. MoustierFor A. Sola
    46’
  7. ⇄ Jovane CabralFor I. Stoica
    46’
  8. ⇄ Daniel JúniorFor Miguel Baeza
    49’
  9. Paulinho Bóia 2–0Assist Léo Santos
    71’
  10. ⇄ S. van HooijdonkFor G. Doue
    74’
  11. ⇄ Jefferson EncadaFor B. Langa
    75’
  12. ⇄ Lenny VallierFor José Gomes
    77’
  13. ⇄ Filipe SoaresFor Liziero
    77’
  14. Alan NuñezYellow card
    78’
  15. Jefferson EncadaYellow card
    81’
  16. ⇄ Leandro AntonettiFor Rodrigo Pinho
    85’
  17. Daniel JúniorYellow card
    86’
  18. ⇄ Francisco GonçalvesFor Gabriel Veron
    89’
  19. Paulinho BóiaYellow card · misses next match
    90+6’
  20. Full time · 2–0

Team stats

Nacional16 shots · 8 in box, 8 outside
Estrela10 shots · 6 in box, 4 outside
NacionalEstrela
49% Possession 51%
0.94 Expected goals (xG) 0.49
1.72 Expected points (xPts) 0.92
16 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 2
5 Shots off target 5
7 Blocked shots 3
8 Shots inside the box 6
8 Shots outside the box 4
303 Passes 321
79% Pass accuracy 78%
5 Corners 6
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
13 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 5
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
6.96 Team rating 6.63

Line-ups

Nacional 4-3-3

16.6 Kaique(G)
57.2 José Gomes ↓77’ 386.9 Zé Vitor 347.2 Léo Santos A 167.2 Alan Nuñez
287.0 Liziero ↓77’ 156.3 C. Labidi 86.2 Miguel Baeza ↓49’
118.3★ Paulinho Bóia 97.7 J. Ramírez 276.2 Gabriel Veron ↓89’
  • 1Kaique (G)6.6
  • 5José Gomes↓77’7.2
  • 38Zé Vitor6.9
  • 34Léo SantosA7.2
  • 16Alan Nuñez7.2
  • 28Liziero↓77’7.0
  • 15C. Labidi6.3
  • 8Miguel Baeza↓49’6.2
  • 11Paulinho Bóia ★8.3
  • 9J. Ramírez7.7
  • 27Gabriel Veron↓89’6.2

Substitutes used

  • 10Daniel Júnior↑49’6.2
  • 24Lenny Vallier↑77’6.3
  • 33Francisco Gonçalves↑89’
  • 22Filipe Soares↑77’6.3

Unused: João Aurélio, Witi, Joel Silva, Lucas João, Kevyn

Estrela 4-3-3

406.5 Renan Ribeiro(G)
246.3 B. Langa ↓75’ 147.0 Bernardo Schappo 306.9 Luan Patrick 216.6 M. Scholze
636.7 A. Sola ↓46’ 67.0 Kevin Höög Jansson 396.7 G. Doue ↓74’
106.7 I. Stoica ↓46’ 96.6 Rodrigo Pinho ↓85’ 996.2 A. Marcus
  • 40Renan Ribeiro (G)6.5
  • 24B. Langa↓75’6.3
  • 14Bernardo Schappo7.0
  • 30Luan Patrick6.9
  • 21M. Scholze6.6
  • 63A. Sola↓46’6.7
  • 6Kevin Höög Jansson7.0
  • 39G. Doue↓74’6.7
  • 10I. Stoica↓46’6.7
  • 9Rodrigo Pinho↓85’6.6
  • 99A. Marcus6.2

Substitutes used

  • 28T. Moustier↑46’6.3
  • 11Jovane Cabral↑46’6.6
  • 20S. van Hooijdonk↑74’6.3
  • 17Jefferson Encada↑75’6.7
  • 7Leandro Antonetti↑85’6.5

Unused: Dudu, Ni, Jorge Meireles, Otávio

Coach: Joao Nuno

Player stats

Top rated
Paulinho BóiaNacional8.3
2nd
J. RamírezNacional7.7
3rd
José GomesNacional7.2

Nacional

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
Kaique G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 49% 35 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.6
José Gomes D 77 0 0 0 (0) 2 77% 13 3 0 2/4 0/0 7.2
Zé Vitor D 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 88% 25 0 1 0/0 3/0 6.9
Léo Santos D 90 0 1 0 (0) 1 84% 31 2 0 0/0 2/0 7.2
Alan Nuñez D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 84% 25 0 1 0/0 2/0 7.2
Liziero M 77 0 0 0 (0) 1 86% 35 4 0 0/2 0/1 7.0
C. Labidi M 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 83% 42 2 0 0/0 2/0 6.3
Miguel Baeza M 49 0 0 1 (0) 0 85% 13 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2
Paulinho Bóia F 90 1 0 1 (1) 2 85% 27 3 0 1/5 0/2 8.3
J. Ramírez F 90 1 0 3 (1) 1 67% 15 1 0 0/0 1/2 7.7
Gabriel Veron F 89 0 0 1 (0) 0 79% 19 2 0 0/2 1/0 6.2
Daniel Júnior F 41 0 0 1 (1) 1 87% 15 0 0 1/3 2/0 6.2
Lenny Vallier D 13 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 2 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
Francisco Gonçalves D 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
Filipe Soares M 13 0 0 1 (0) 0 83% 6 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3

Estrela

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
Renan Ribeiro G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 83% 23 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.5
B. Langa D 75 0 0 0 (0) 0 74% 31 1 0 3/4 0/0 6.3
Bernardo Schappo D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 74% 53 2 1 0/0 1/0 7.0
Luan Patrick D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 84% 45 1 0 1/1 2/0 6.9
M. Scholze F 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 93% 29 5 0 2/3 0/1 6.6
A. Sola M 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 12 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.7
Kevin Höög Jansson M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 81% 26 1 1 0/0 0/0 7.0
G. Doue M 74 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 28 1 0 1/1 1/3 6.7
I. Stoica F 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 8 0 0 0/1 0/2 6.7
Rodrigo Pinho F 85 0 0 1 (1) 1 75% 8 0 0 0/0 2/3 6.6
A. Marcus F 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 60% 30 2 1 2/6 0/0 6.2
T. Moustier M 44 0 0 1 (0) 2 60% 5 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.3
Jovane Cabral F 44 0 0 4 (1) 0 67% 12 1 0 2/2 0/0 6.6
S. van Hooijdonk F 16 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
Jefferson Encada M 15 0 0 0 (0) 0 80% 10 1 0 0/0 0/1 6.7
Leandro Antonetti F 5 0 0 0 (0) 0 0% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.