GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 24). GIL Vicente had 5.2 days of rest, Moreirense 6.2 and had to travel 28 km.
Away travel28 kmRest days5.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
GIL Vicente37%
Draw28%
Moreirense35%
GIL Vicente37%
Draw27%
Moreirense36%
GIL Vicente37%
Draw28%
Moreirense35%
GIL Vicente30%
Draw28%
Moreirense42%
GIL Vicente37%
Draw27%
Moreirense36%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 62
Team strength
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
32
AttackIn forecast
17
50
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteMoreirense
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.61
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
33%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
14.33
ShotsContext
8.33
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
28%
On target shareContext
36%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
62%
Box shareContext
63%
5%
ConversionContext
20%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.33
Shots allowedContext
9.00
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
2.33
BlocksContext
2.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
82%
Save rateContext
88%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
310
PassesContext
400
246
Accurate passesContext
330
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.33
FoulsContext
15.67
19.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
4.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
60%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.00
ShotsContext
8.60
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
30%
On target shareContext
42%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
4.70
58%
Box shareContext
53%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.30
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.67
BlocksContext
3.22
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
75%
Save rateContext
74%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
360
PassesContext
355
285
Accurate passesContext
289
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.80
FoulsContext
14.20
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
3.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km32 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Moreirense
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel28 km3,074 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 10 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 6.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 28 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 32 km | 3,074 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 16 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
42Andrew(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
95Santi García
5F. Cáseres
32Martin Fernández
10Luís Esteves
17Sergio Bermejo
9Pablo
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
22Caio Secco(G)
17Álvaro Martínez
26Maracás
44Marcelo
76Dinis Pinto
25Afonso Assis
8M. Stjepanović
7Cedric Teguia
11Alan
10Kiko Bondoso
95Guilherme Schettine
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Moreirense · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 GIL Vicente wins1 draws2 Moreirense wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 6 Apr 2025GIL Vicente0–1Moreirense
- 8 Nov 2024Moreirense3–2GIL Vicente
- 20 Apr 2024Moreirense0–1GIL Vicente
- 11 Dec 2023GIL Vicente1–1Moreirense
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 1.33 | 2.00 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| GIL Vicente | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 1.33 | 2.00 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 9.00 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 4.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 6.33 | 6.66 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| GIL Vicente | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 2.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 4.63 | |
| Match total | 9.38 | 7.51 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.03league 5.00
Red cards0.42league 0.20
Cards 5+55%league 60%
Fouls28.0league 28.1
Penalties0.34league 0.36
Home wins61%league 40%
GIL Vicente2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L9 Feb 25A · SC Braga0–21
- L23 Sep 23A · FC Porto1–23
Moreirense3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.3.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W5 Dec 24H · Sporting CP2–13
- D21 Sep 24H · Famalicao0–05
- D21 Aug 23A · Famalicao0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente3 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Moreirense3 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
6
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
