GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 22). GIL Vicente had 85 days of rest, Rio Ave 85.1 and had to travel 22 km.
Away travel22 kmRest days85 · 85.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
GIL Vicente50%
Draw25%
Rio Ave25%
GIL Vicente51%
Draw24%
Rio Ave25%
GIL Vicente50%
Draw25%
Rio Ave25%
GIL Vicente43%
Draw26%
Rio Ave31%
GIL Vicente50%
Draw25%
Rio Ave25%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia
- Cards per match 6.2
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 70
Team strength
GIL Vicente
Rio Ave
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
32
AttackIn forecast
18
50
DefenceIn forecast
21
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Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteRio Ave
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
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—
Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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—
Save rateContext
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—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.30
ShotsContext
12.00
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
33%
On target shareContext
37%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
60%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.40
11.30
Shots allowedContext
12.70
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.70
BlocksContext
3.40
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
66%
Save rateContext
72%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
378
PassesContext
381
311
Accurate passesContext
309
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.60
FoulsContext
11.00
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
Rest85 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rio Ave
Rest85.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel22 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 85Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May | 85.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 22 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
30Lucão(G)
26Weverson
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
47Ricardo Esgaio
5F. Cáseres
12A. Lausen
20Gil Martins
10Santi García
11Joelson Fernandes
29Carlos Eduardo
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
99E. van der Gouw(G)
6N. Abbey
39Gustavo Mancha
23F. Petrasso
54G. Liavas
5A. Ntoi
90Diogo Nascimento
7Diogo Bezerra
8Ryan Guilherme
30R. Galcik
11Jalen Blesa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
No home games yet this season.
Rio Ave · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 GIL Vicente wins6 draws2 Rio Ave wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 3 May 2026Rio Ave0–0GIL Vicente
- 20 Dec 2025GIL Vicente2–2Rio Ave
- 16 May 2025Rio Ave1–1GIL Vicente
- 6 Jan 2025GIL Vicente1–1Rio Ave
- 6 Apr 2024Rio Ave3–0GIL Vicente
- 12 Nov 2023GIL Vicente1–1Rio Ave
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 53% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| GIL Vicente | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.60 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.40 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| GIL Vicente | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 11.00 | 10.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 70 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.73league 4.20
Red cards0.43league 0.20
Cards 5+73%league 20%
Fouls28.6league 24.2
Penalties0.43league 0.40
Home wins37%league 40%
GIL Vicente5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- D2 Jan 26H · Sporting CP1–14
- W26 Apr 25H · Farense1–01
- D22 Sep 24H · Casa Pia1–12
- D26 Apr 24H · Arouca2–23
- L6 Apr 24A · Rio Ave0–34
Rio Ave7 with this referee
Record3-3-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- D3 Feb 25H · FC Porto2–22
- W6 Apr 24H · GIL Vicente3–02
- D16 Dec 23H · Vizela1–13
- W17 Mar 23A · Santa Clara2–02
- W13 Feb 23H · Estoril2–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL VicenteRio AveGIL Vicente10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
5
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
31-45
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
