GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 25). GIL Vicente had 10.1 days of rest, Santa Clara 9.2 and had to travel 1,517 km.
Away travel1,517 kmRest days10.1 · 9.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
GIL Vicente48%
Draw27%
Santa Clara25%
GIL Vicente49%
Draw26%
Santa Clara25%
GIL Vicente48%
Draw27%
Santa Clara25%
GIL Vicente41%
Draw28%
Santa Clara31%
GIL Vicente49%
Draw26%
Santa Clara25%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalSergio Guelho
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 15
Team strength
GIL Vicente
Santa Clara
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
32
AttackIn forecast
29
50
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSanta Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteSanta Clara
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.89
0.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
78%
Scored inContext
67%
78%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.00
ShotsContext
12.11
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
35%
On target shareContext
32%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
58%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.29
10.89
Shots allowedContext
9.22
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.67
BlocksContext
1.80
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
84%
Save rateContext
79%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
332
PassesContext
380
261
Accurate passesContext
311
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.81
15.11
FoulsContext
12.78
13.89
Fouls sufferedContext
16.33
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.22
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
80%
Scored inContext
70%
70%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.60
ShotsContext
12.75
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.13
35%
On target shareContext
32%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.38
57%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.29
10.40
Shots allowedContext
9.63
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.14
2.57
BlocksContext
2.00
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
83%
Save rateContext
79%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
335
PassesContext
376
264
Accurate passesContext
304
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.86
14.40
FoulsContext
12.63
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
15.88
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
Rest10.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km590 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Santa Clara
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,517 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
Santa Clara |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Oct | 9.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,517 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 590 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
42Andrew(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
6Zé Carlos
5F. Cáseres
95Santi García
11Joelson Fernandes
9Pablo
77Murilo
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
64Paulo Victor
23Sidney Lima
13Luís Rocha
42Lucas Soares
35Serginho
6Adriano
8Pedro Ferreira
70Vinícius Lopes
29Wendel
11Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Santa Clara · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | GIL Vicente | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | W 4–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Estrela | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Benfica | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Estoril | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Moreirense | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 13 of 18 · 2.17 per game | 8 of 18 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 GIL Vicente wins0 draws3 Santa Clara wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 15 Mar 2025GIL Vicente0–1Santa Clara
- 25 Oct 2024Santa Clara2–1GIL Vicente
- 6 May 2023Santa Clara3–2GIL Vicente
- 29 Dec 2022GIL Vicente1–0Santa Clara
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.44 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 22% | 44% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 11% | 44% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 78% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| GIL Vicente | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.44 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 22% | 44% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 11% | 44% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 78% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.14 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.14 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.28 | 9.17 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.78 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 5.78 | 6.22 | 5.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 89% 8/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| GIL Vicente | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.63 | 10.00 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 6.20 | 5.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sergio Guelho Portugal · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.40league 5.19
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+33%league 64%
Fouls27.1league 27.8
Penalties0.13league 0.47
Home wins53%league 36%
GIL Vicente1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L2 Nov 24H · Boavista1–23
Santa Clara3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W20 Sep 25H · Alverca2–16
- D18 Apr 25A · Rio Ave1–12
- W8 Feb 25A · AVS2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente9 games · scored 14 · conceded 4
3
0-15
3
16-30
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Santa Clara9 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 15 · conceded 5
3
0-15
3
16-30
7
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
