Girona vs Elche – 23 May 2026

La Liga Gameweek 38 Sat, May 23 · 20:00 Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona

Girona 18th · 40 pts · 37 played LLDDL

1–1Full time

Elche 16th · 42 pts · 37 played WLDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Girona were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Girona. Girona had 6.1 days of rest, Elche 6.1 and had to travel 511 km.

Away travel511 kmRest days6.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d3 · 2

Girona48%

Draw27%

Elche25%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.05

Girona46%

Draw26%

Elche28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.15

Girona49%

Draw26%

Elche24%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.05

Girona41%

Draw28%

Elche32%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.18

Girona49%

Draw26%

Elche25%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.08

Over 2.5 48% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Girona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 137

Team strength

Girona

Elche

46 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

49 AttackIn forecast 39

64 DefenceIn forecast 51

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Elche

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Girona

Elche

1.03 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.46 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.51

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.09

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

73% Scored inContext 86%

16% Clean sheetsContext 22%

10.86 ShotsContext 10.68

4.06 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.94

36% On target shareContext 36%

6.97 Shots in the boxContext 7.51

64% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.19

14.41 Shots allowedContext 13.70

4.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.83

3.65 BlocksContext 3.68

3.53 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

72% Save rateContext 66%

51% PossessionIn forecast 58%

463 PassesContext 493

398 Accurate passesContext 424

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.41 FoulsContext 12.84

14.27 Fouls sufferedContext 14.05

1.92 Yellow cardsContext 2.14

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 37 and 37 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.30

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.50 ShotsContext 10.50

4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

30% On target shareContext 33%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

63% Box shareContext 71%

8% ConversionContext 12%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.50 Shots allowedContext 12.20

5.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.90 BlocksContext 3.10

4.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

76% Save rateContext 60%

53% PossessionIn forecast 56%

488 PassesContext 447

425 Accurate passesContext 381

87% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.87

9.20 FoulsContext 13.70

14.90 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Girona

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,292 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Elche

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel511 km946 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Girona	Elche
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May	6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	511 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,292 km	946 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	—	86

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Girona Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

24Álex Moreno 5David López 12Vitor Reis 4Arnau Martínez

20A. Witsel

3Joel Roca 18A. Ounahi 23Iván Martín 21Bryan Gil

15V. Tsyhankov

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Elche Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1M. Dituro(G)

6Bigas 23Víctor Chust 22D. Affengruber 42Buba Sangaré

8Marc Aguado

11Germán Valera 14Aleix Febas 12Gonzalo Villar 15Tete Morente

20Á. Rodríguez

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Girona Scores -0.05 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Elche Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Girona-1.4 pp
Draw+0.5 pp
Elche+0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Girona · Home 1.28points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 6-5-7
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 1.44

Elche · Away 0.39points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 1-4-13
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.06

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Girona	Elche
Atletico Madrid	L 0–1 AL 0–3 H	W 3–2 HD 1–1 A
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	L 1–3 AD 1–1 H
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 AL 1–3 H	L 0–1 AW 4–0 H
Mallorca	L 0–1 HW 2–1 A	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A
Valencia	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Real Betis	L 2–3 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Real Madrid	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	L 1–4 AD 2–2 H
Villarreal	W 1–0 HL 0–5 A	L 1–2 AL 1–3 H
Osasuna	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A
Athletic Club	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H
Levante	D 1–1 AL 0–4 H	L 2–3 AW 2–0 H
Celta Vigo	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A	L 1–3 AW 2–1 H
Alaves	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 HL 1–3 A
Barcelona	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A	L 1–3 HL 1–3 A
Sevilla	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Oviedo	L 0–1 AD 3–3 H	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H
Getafe	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Espanyol	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
Points	40 of 108 · 1.11 per game	39 of 108 · 1.08 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Girona wins0 draws1 Elche wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%

7 Dec 2025Elche3–0Girona
16 Apr 2023Girona2–0Elche
8 Nov 2022Elche1–2Girona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Girona	Elche	Forecast
Scored per game	1.03	1.30
Conceded per game	1.46	1.51
Match goals	2.49	2.81	2.59
Over 1.5	78%	78%
Over 2.5	46%	59%	48%
Over 3.5	16%	41%
Both teams scored	59%	70%	52%
Clean sheets	16%	22%
Failed to score	27%	14%
Games	37	37

	Girona	Elche	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.30
Conceded per game	1.10	1.50
Match goals	2.10	2.80	2.59
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	48%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Girona	Elche	League
Corners
Corners won	4.34	3.72
Corners conceded	5.03	4.64
Match total	9.37	8.36	9.57
Over 8.5	54% 19/35	44% 16/36
Over 9.5	43% 15/35	36% 13/36
Over 10.5	40% 14/35	22% 8/36
Cards
Cards	2.08	2.30
Opponent cards	1.97	2.27
Match total	4.05	4.57	4.52
Over 3.5	43% 16/37	76% 28/37
Over 4.5	30% 11/37	49% 18/37

	Girona	Elche	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	4.11
Corners conceded	5.60	5.33
Match total	9.70	9.44	9.57
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.50
Opponent cards	2.40	2.20
Match total	3.70	4.70	4.52
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 137 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.02league 4.25

Red cards0.26league 0.28

Cards 5+58%league 46%

Fouls24.8league 24.5

Penalties0.30league 0.35

Home wins43%league 48%

Girona6 with this referee

Record4-0-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.8 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

W10 Jan 26H · Osasuna1–03
L21 Apr 25H · Real Betis1–33
W23 Nov 24H · Espanyol4–10
L21 Sep 24A · Valencia0–22
W4 May 24H · Barcelona4–20

Elche6 with this referee

Record0-1-5 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds2

L20 Feb 26A · Athletic Club1–23
L28 Nov 25A · Getafe0–12
L2 May 23A · Almeria1–22
L7 May 22A · Cadiz0–31
L6 Mar 22H · Barcelona1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.