Girona vs Real Madrid – 30 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 14 Sun, Nov 30 · 20:00 Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona

Girona 18th · 11 pts · 13 played LDLWD

1–1Full time

Real Madrid 3rd · 32 pts · 13 played WWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid were clear favourites.

Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 38). Girona had 7.2 days of rest, Real Madrid 7 and had to travel 573 km.

Away travel573 kmRest days7.2 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Girona13%

Draw20%

Real Madrid68%

Expected goals 0.82 – 2.16

Girona13%

Draw20%

Real Madrid68%

Expected goals 0.82 – 2.17

Girona12%

Draw20%

Real Madrid67%

Expected goals 0.79 – 2.11

Girona9%

Draw17%

Real Madrid74%

Expected goals 0.73 – 2.42

Girona13%

Draw20%

Real Madrid68%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.22

Over 2.5 57% Both score 50% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Girona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 38

Team strength

Girona

Real Madrid

38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 90

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

49 AttackIn forecast 89

64 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Girona

Real Madrid

0.92 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.15

1.92 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.92

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 2.20

1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

69% Scored inContext 92%

15% Clean sheetsContext 46%

9.08 ShotsContext 19.15

3.62 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.08

40% On target shareContext 37%

5.69 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

62% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.09

16.85 Shots allowedContext 10.00

5.46 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.45

3.54 BlocksContext 3.91

3.77 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.18

69% Save rateContext 63%

48% PossessionIn forecast 60%

415 PassesContext 572

350 Accurate passesContext 511

84% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.72 Team ratingContext 7.16

10.69 FoulsContext 10.77

14.54 Fouls sufferedContext 12.08

1.92 Yellow cardsContext 1.54

0.15 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 2.34

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

8.90 ShotsContext 19.70

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.70

44% On target shareContext 39%

5.80 Shots in the boxContext 12.40

65% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.86 OffsidesContext 2.57

17.40 Shots allowedContext 11.90

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

3.80 BlocksContext 3.30

4.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

77% Save rateContext 80%

47% PossessionIn forecast 60%

413 PassesContext 551

347 Accurate passesContext 487

84% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.82 Team ratingContext 7.14

11.80 FoulsContext 10.70

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Girona

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,819 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Madrid

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel573 km704 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Girona	Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Nov	7La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	573 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,819 km	704 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.7	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Girona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

24Álex Moreno 12Vitor Reis 4Arnau Martínez 2Hugo Rincón

20A. Witsel 23Iván Martín

21Bryan Gil 18A. Ounahi 15V. Tsyhankov

19V. Vanat

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Madrid Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1T. Courtois(G)

20Fran García 22A. Rüdiger 3Éder Militão 12T. Alexander-Arnold

5J. Bellingham 14A. Tchouaméni 8F. Valverde

7Vinícius 10K. Mbappé 15A. Güler

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Girona Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Madrid Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Girona+0.2 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Real Madrid+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Girona · Home 1.14points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.86

Real Madrid · Away 2.00points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.29

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	Girona	Real Madrid
Getafe	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 A
Oviedo	D 3–3 H	W 3–0 A
Barcelona	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Valencia	W 2–1 H	W 4–0 H
Espanyol	D 0–0 H	W 2–0 H
Levante	L 0–4 H	W 4–1 A
Villarreal	L 0–5 A	W 3–1 H
Rayo Vallecano	L 1–3 H	D 0–0 A
Points	5 of 24 · 0.63 per game	22 of 24 · 2.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Girona wins1 draws4 Real Madrid wins

Goals per game0.83 – 2.50 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets0% · 67%

23 Feb 2025Real Madrid2–0Girona
7 Dec 2024Girona0–3Real Madrid
10 Feb 2024Real Madrid4–0Girona
30 Sep 2023Girona0–3Real Madrid
25 Apr 2023Girona4–2Real Madrid
30 Oct 2022Real Madrid1–1Girona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Girona	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	0.92	2.15
Conceded per game	1.92	0.92
Match goals	2.85	3.08	2.98
Over 1.5	85%	77%
Over 2.5	54%	69%	57%
Over 3.5	31%	38%
Both teams scored	62%	54%	50%
Clean sheets	15%	46%
Failed to score	31%	8%
Games	13	13

	Girona	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	2.20
Conceded per game	1.50	1.10
Match goals	2.60	3.30	2.98
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	57%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Girona	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	6.00
Corners conceded	5.64	3.73
Match total	10.64	9.73	9.69
Over 8.5	73% 8/11	64% 7/11
Over 9.5	55% 6/11	45% 5/11
Over 10.5	55% 6/11	27% 3/11
Cards
Cards	2.23	1.62
Opponent cards	1.46	2.54
Match total	3.69	4.16	4.33
Over 3.5	31% 4/13	54% 7/13
Over 4.5	31% 4/13	46% 6/13

	Girona	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.13	6.89
Corners conceded	6.13	2.89
Match total	11.26	9.78	9.69
Over 8.5	88% 7/8	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	63% 5/8	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.50
Opponent cards	1.60	2.60
Match total	4.20	4.10	4.33
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 38 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 4.09

Red cards0.24league 0.27

Cards 5+34%league 46%

Fouls22.1league 24.6

Penalties0.21league 0.33

Home wins50%league 47%

Girona3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3 Pens for · against1 · 1

L13 Apr 24A · Atletico Madrid1–32
W26 Feb 24H · Rayo Vallecano3–03
D21 Dec 23A · Real Betis1–12

Real Madrid3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

W24 Aug 25A · Oviedo3–01
W1 Feb 24A · Getafe2–02
D21 Oct 23A · Sevilla1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.